SPC AC 221220

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0720 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

   Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe
   wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida
   coast this afternoon.

   ...Southeast FL coast this afternoon...
   In conjunction with a midlevel shortwave trough moving over the
   Southeast, a surface cold front will progress southward from central
   to south FL through the day.  Surface dewpoints near 70 F this
   morning will likely decrease with surface heating/mixing, though
   there is some uncertainty regarding the influence of morning
   clouds/convection.  Assuming a few cloud breaks by midday/early
   afternoon, the more probable area for thunderstorm development this
   afternoon will be near the southeast FL coast.  This area will be
   along the southern fringe of the stronger mid-upper westerlies,
   where deep-layer shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for
   semi-organized storms with a low-end wind/hail threat for a few
   hours this afternoon.

   ...Elsewhere...
   A midlevel trough will dig southeastward over the northern Plains
   and upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, as an associated surface
   cold front moves southeastward into the upper MS Valley and central
   Plains.  Isolated high-based thunderstorms may form late this
   afternoon in the zone of deepest mixing along the front from
   northeast CO into northwest KS, where gusty winds will be possible. 
   Elevated convection rooted near 700 mb is the more probable scenario
   tonight atop the frontal surface from southern NE/northern KS into
   southern IA/northern MO.  Otherwise, weak/low-topped convection with
   isolated lightning flashes will also be possible this
   afternoon/evening within the midlevel cold pool over northern ND/MN.
   Strong wind gusts will be possible given deep mixing and strong
   synoptic flow over ND, but severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

   ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/22/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z