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Mar 28, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 28 05:40:40 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240328 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240328 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280540

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and
   central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur
   across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold
   mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and
   ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region.
   A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related
   to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central
   Rockies.

   Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward
   from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper
   Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this
   low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited,
   with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still,
   a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the
   northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the
   Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be
   located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features
   should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening
   southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development
   mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the
   mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though
   deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame,
   convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak
   MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber
   hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears
   possible.

   ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: March 28, 2024
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