SPC AC 100104

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

   Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat
   across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms
   across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant
   damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas,
   Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and
   perhaps into north Florida.

   ...Texas into parts of the Southeast...
   Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central
   TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment.
   Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the
   supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts
   and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually
   increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of
   an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong
   deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through
   the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large),
   localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. 

   With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east
   Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft,
   potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve
   into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging
   winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty
   remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening,
   with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front
   moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a
   severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward
   with time. 

   If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become
   favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an
   organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It
   is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the
   MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is
   expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a
   favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind
   possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two.

   ..Dean.. 05/10/2024

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