SPC AC 241245

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

   Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
   ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible this evening
   across west central Texas.

   ...West central TX this evening...
   A midlevel shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will move
   inland over southern AZ by the end of the period.  Downstream,
   shortwave ridging will persist over the Plains, though some increase
   in westerly flow over the Rockies will contribute to lee troughing
   across eastern CO/NM.  The lee trough will maintain southerly
   low-level flow and a gradual increase in low-level moisture to the
   south of a warm front that will move slowly northward across OK and
   the TX Panhandle.  The moistening (boundary-layer dewpoints of 64-70
   F and 100 mb mean mixing ratios of 12-14 g/kg) will occur beneath a
   warm elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km,
   which will drive large buoyancy (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg) within a capped
   warm sector.

   The potential exception to this is along the developing dryline
   across west central TX where surface heating/mixing could be deep
   enough to remove convective inhibition, and isolated thunderstorm
   development will be possible by this afternoon/evening.  Confidence
   in storm development is modest, but the environment with large
   buoyancy, steep lapse rates and effective bulk shear greater than 40
   kt will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing isolated
   very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow
   gusts of 60-70 mph.  There will be an increase in low-level shear
   this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to
   yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow
   time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms
   weaken.

   ...OK into KS through tonight...
   Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing over western OK in a zone of
   low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy likely rooted near 700
   mb.  Some of this convection could persist today while spreading
   eastward, with a low-end hail threat.  Additional elevated storms
   are expected to form overnight from northeast OK into KS with
   strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture.  A
   couple of storms could produce isolated large hail the last few
   hours of the forecast period.

   ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/24/2024

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