Will Marcus Semien re-sign with the Blue Jays? Examining that question from all angles

One of the biggest questions hanging over the Blue Jays this offseason is whether Marcus Semien will re-sign with them.

Semien signed a one-year, $18 million deal with Toronto last offseason. He had a superb 2021, batting .265/.334/.538 while hitting 45 home runs, the most in a season by a second baseman in MLB history. The signing was a success for the Blue Jays, while setting up Semien for a major payday this offseason.

Because of Semien’s contributions on and off the field, the Blue Jays are interested in re-signing him, and during his end-of-season availability, Semien said he remained open to returning. But he’ll have plenty of other options, too. Even in a crowded shortstop market, Semien stands out as one of the top free agents, and he proved this season he can play second base.

There are many factors to consider in free agency, including primary ones like money, term and playing opportunity and secondary but still meaningful ones like location, club culture and competitiveness of the team. At age 31, Semien seems poised to net the big, long-term deal that’s he’s worked toward. So, what will Semien be looking for?

“I don’t know yet. I played second base all year, I can play shortstop, I really don’t know,” he said. “I feel like my power numbers speak for themselves. I’m a baseball player, I’m 31 years old, but I feel like I’m getting better every day. My body feels great. And we’ll have to see. When you get to free agency, it’s not as easy as just, ‘OK, I’m going here and get it done.’ The business side of it takes over. There’s a CBA involved. There’s different calls, there’s different offers. My wife and three kids are my everything. It’ll take time. But in the end, hopefully, I’m able to make a decision. It’s a blessing to be able to sit there with a bunch of offers and make a decision.”

So, will Semien return to the Blue Jays next season? Let’s examine a few angles to that question.

Why the Blue Jays want Semien to return

This one’s easy: Because Semien makes the Blue Jays a better team, both with his on-field play and off-the-field demeanour. Let’s begin with the on-field contributions. Since 2019, no position player has been worth more wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, than Semien’s 15.4. Zeroing in on 2021, Semien ranked second in the American League, at 6.6 fWAR, right behind his teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Simply put, Semien is a valuable player, both on offence and defence.

Offensively, Semien had a 131 wRC+ this season, meaning he was 31 percent better than average. A lot of Semien’s value came from his power numbers. He bested his career-high home runs mark (33), set in 2019, by 12 homers. His isolated power (ISO) stat, which measures how often someone hits for extra bases, was an outstanding .273, the best mark of his career and ranked top four in the AL. His hard-hit rate was also up this season, at 41.3 percent. He’s a sneaky good baserunner, stealing a career-high 15 bases (he was caught only once), and per FanGraphs’ baserunning stat, he was worth four runs above average on the base paths.

Semien did post a lower walk rate this season (9.1 percent) and a higher strikeout rate (20.2 percent) compared to his 2019 season (11.6 walk rate, 13.7 K percentage). This could be a result of the age curve — data tells us strikeouts go up and walks go down around age 30-31 — or another reason, like moving to the AL East.

Semien also remains a strong defensive infielder. Per Defensive Runs Saved, he was 11 runs above average at second base, the third-best defensive second baseman in the majors. Semien proved his durability as well, playing in all 162 games in 2021, one of two players to do that in 2021.

Off the field, Semien quietly led by example through his work ethic and dedicated routine. Perhaps his influence is best articulated through Bo Bichette’s answer when asked what it meant to play beside Semien: “Everything,” Bichette said, holding back tears. “He’s meant a lot to me.”

Beyond that, he would offer the Blue Jays certainty at second base for years to come. There are some internal options, like Cavan Biggio, though he can be a utility player, too. Among prospects, the Blue Jays have a few infielders who could potentially fill that role in the future, like Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martinez or Miguel Hiraldo, but none are knocking on MLB’s door yet.

Why Semien would want to return to the Blue Jays

During his end-of-season media session, Semien was asked if he would be interested in returning to the Blue Jays. Of course, he said yes. It’s a savvy business move to keep all his options open. But his full answer did reveal what seemed like a genuine appreciation for what the Blue Jays have.

“We had the best offence in the major leagues, and in my mind, the best starting pitching in the game, how could you not want to be a part of that?” he said. “Obviously, when you have those things set in stone, there’s little pieces to add to get to the next level. I’m one of them. I think our bullpen is another one. We also have young guys getting better. We’ll see what happens. But I had a great time here. I love the facility and everything that they offered for me to do what I needed to do to get ready for a game. And that’s all I could ask.”

That spells out why Toronto might be a preferred landing spot. The chance for the Blue Jays to be a contender sticks out, but for a player as routine-oriented as Semien is, a proper training environment is essential — and the Blue Jays offered that. In addition to the facilities at the Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays also have a cutting-edge spring training facility in Dunedin, Fla.

Another potential factor is that, even in a two-month window, Semien was impressed with what he called the “passion of the fans” in Toronto. Next season, the team will presumably be back at the Rogers Centre full-time for home games and will get to reap the benefits of the home crowd for a full season.

“I can remember back in Oakland where we’re in the race and the energy wasn’t what we had here, to put it lightly in,” Semien said after the last game of the season. “As a player, you feed off that energy. It’s the most fun you can ever have at this level and it really was a playoff atmosphere.”

This is what Semien said to The Athletic’s Peter Gammons last month about playing in Toronto.

“There’s so much that’s great about Toronto and playing there,” Semien told Gammons. “I walk to work. The city’s beautiful, the walk is really nice, I really like the neighbourhood. It’s very clear that Mark Shapiro wants this to be a great place for players.”

These factors will play in role in his decision, but at the end of the day, it’ll come down to contract length and value. There’s no reason why Semien shouldn’t be seeking a deal of five or six years and worth $100-plus million. The Blue Jays have only about $65 million committed to 2022 payroll obligations, so there is room to add. And the front office has shown a willingness to spend big on a free agent who is in his 30s (see: George Springer and Hyun Jin Ryu). But ultimately a more crowded shortstop field this offseason that includes Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Javier Báez may dictate the market and determine what Semien can get. If the Blue Jays meet him at the right price and term, there is at least reason to believe he’d be willing to return.

Why Semien would sign with another team

Beyond the obvious reason of a team offering him a better contract — by term, dollar value or both — there could be other reasons Semien might decide to play elsewhere.

For six seasons with the A’s, Semien was an everyday shortstop. And although he certainly was happy to play second base this year while being a mentor to Bichette, he also continued to talk about himself in terms of being a shortstop who played second base — in 2021, he started 14 games as a shortstop and 146 as a second baseman — and it’s fair to wonder how much he wants to return to the position on a more regular basis.

If another club offered him a similar deal as the Blue Jays, but had more playing time available at shortstop, would that sway Semien? (The Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Astros, Twins and Tigers will be looking for a shortstop, to name a few teams). It’s worth wondering how much traction Semien will receive as a shortstop versus as a second baseman. In the shortstop market, MLB Trade Rumors ranked Semien third, behind Correa and Seager, but ahead of Story and Báez. But, among second basemen, Semien is leading the class. So, will teams be viewing, and therefore paying, Semien as a shortstop or as a second baseman? It’s reasonable to think a bit of both, and Semien could have his choice of opportunities.

Location may also be a consideration for Semien and his family. He grew up in the Bay Area and he enjoyed playing for the A’s because of the proximity to his home and his family. Semien’s wife and children came to Toronto for part of the summer, but his sons attend school in the Bay Area, so he was separated from them for the last several weeks of the season. There’s been speculation a West Coast club — such as the Giants or maybe the Dodgers or Angels — could woo Semien. In his final comments this season, Semien discussed how playing with the Blue Jays was an adjustment for his family — especially the multiple moves.

“I think that we were a little shell shocked early on just being from Oakland, living in our home, playing in Oakland, it was a lot easier,” he said. “But we knew what we were getting into. I think that Toronto is a place that, for the guys with families, that’s what it’s going to be. You may be apart from your family a little bit more than other places, but in terms of the baseball, it’s top-notch and it’s something that we will discuss this offseason.”

Why the Blue Jays might not be able to keep him

The front office will have a preferred deal in mind that fits within their offseason budget as well as their multi-year payroll projection. There is surely wiggle room, but they’ll have their limits. They might simply be outbid by another club. And the Blue Jays can’t offer Semien much playing time at shortstop because of Bichette’s future at the position.

The Blue Jays also have to balance addressing current roster needs through free agency or trade, while keeping in mind their younger players will only cost more from here on out as they hit their arbitration years. Potential long-term extensions for cornerstones like Guerrero, Bichette and Teoscar Hernández will have to be factored into their payroll picture in the years to come, too, so any long-term deal signed now has to be considered alongside how the front office wants the team to look three, four and five years from now.

The Blue Jays already have Springer signed through his age-36 season and although there weren’t many red flags in Semien’s 2021 performance to suggest a decline in production is on the horizon, teams do have to bake in the expectation for a drop in performance as a player gets older. Depending on how they project Semien’s production, the Blue Jays may or may not be comfortable going beyond a certain contract length for him. The Blue Jays are poised to offer Semien a qualifying offer and he’ll surely reject it, meaning the Blue Jays will at least receive a compensation draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

But, beyond number crunching, there’s no good reason why the Blue Jays shouldn’t do their best to keep a player like Semien around. His on-field play looks worth the price and his off-the-field attitude might just be priceless.

(Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)