Writers, fans? We want to talk about rotations. It’s fun. It scratches an itch in our brains. It lets us be coaches without having to actually, you know, be able to diagram plays and stuff.
Coaches? Not so much.
“With four rotational players (unavailable), I would say rotations are a long way away,” Raptors coach Nick Nurse said Saturday after the Raptors’ game against Boston. “And I think the days of all of us continuing to ask what is the rotation going to look like — it’s just going to be ever-changing. Every team you look at has two or three or four guys out every night, so you play your best players, they’ll creep into the 32-36 (minutes) range and then you’re going to have your four or five other guys for that night that are available that have to be in the rotation and will be in the rotation. But I couldn’t tell you who they’re going to be.”
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It’s a fair point. There is always this idea that when a team returns to full health, there will only be enough minutes for so many guys. However, how often do teams ever get to full health? A few games per year, maybe?
We know Pascal Siakam and Chris Boucher will miss the start of the season. Boucher might require only a week or two to make it back, while Siakam could miss a month or so. In that time, someone — or multiple people — will probably get hurt. Who replaces them will depend on the identity of the injured players, although less so on the Raptors than on a team with more conventional use of positions. Besides that, Nurse said he is open to changing his starting lineup nightly based on matchups, although he conceded that he usually says that before the season starts and winds up defaulting to a primary look.
It was good to see Khem Birch return from his bout of COVID-19 and play in the final two games of the preseason. Yuta Watanabe missed four of the five games with a calf strain. With that in mind, here is my second crack at the Raptors’ depth chart, with projections of the opening-night lineup and a hypothetical rotation at full health. This follows the Raptors’ final preseason game, a 113-108 road win over the Wizards on Tuesday night.
(* — denotes predicted opening-night starter; # — denotes predicted starter with roster at full health)
Previously: Depth Chart 1.0 | Stock up, stock down
| Player | Opening night mins | Full health mins | Trending |
|---|---|---|---|
38 | 34 | Stable | |
23 | 17 | Stable | |
15 | 13 | Down | |
0 | 0 | Up | |
0 | 0 | Stable |
The first thing I noticed when trying to put together a Raptors rotation at full health is how much of an obstacle Goran Dragic’s minutes are. That is not to say I think Dragic cannot/will not help this team. It’s just with how obviously future-focused the Raptors are, those minutes would make more sense to slide down to Malachi Flynn or to a few of the wing players I’m projecting as DNP-CDs — or even to pad some of the bigs’ minutes. In time (probably).
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Anyway, Dragic’s minutes projections feel low across the board, but it turns out there are only 240 minutes per night to distribute. There is probably a risk of burning out Dragic in what I predict will be his few months as a Raptor, as both parties could benefit from playing-time moderation, if you get my drift. I think he will start until Siakam returns, although Scottie Barnes’ impressive preseason showing as a playmaker (a team-high 28 assists to just nine turnovers) might allow the Raptors to do without Dragic’s creativity in the starting lineup before that.
I didn’t love what I saw from Flynn in the preseason, at least until Tuesday’s second half. His shooting was fine, but he appears to play a beat slower than the Raptors would like. I don’t think it’s a huge cause for concern at this point, and there is certainly a place for more of an orchestrator type on this roster. I’d love to see Flynn probe the paint more in that role, though.
I would not be surprised to see Dalano Banton cause chaos for a few minutes per night to start off the year, at least until the Raptors get healthier. David Johnson is bound for Mississauga.
| Player | Opening night mins | Full health mins | Trending |
|---|---|---|---|
36 | 34 | Up | |
29 | 24 | Up | |
0 | 34 | Stable | |
26 | 22 | Down | |
17 | 0 | Up | |
10 | 0 | Stable | |
0 | 0 | Up | |
0 | 0 | Up | |
0 | 0 | Stable |
I’m ready to consider that there is a third possible answer to the question of whether Dragic or Gary Trent Jr. starts next to Fred VanVleet. That answer, my friends, is “neither.”
Are we sure that Nurse isn’t going to really lean into this whole “Arms Race” thing (alternate name: Arm-y Army from Geoff in the comments) and start Siakam, OG Anunoby and Barnes between VanVleet and one of the centres? I was very skeptical about the possibility before training camp, but after seeing Barnes in the preseason, despite the ample amount of rawness that the rookie has flashed, I believe it’s a real possibility.
I’m not going to predict it, though. I will stick with Trent replacing Dragic in the starting lineup right around the date of Siakam’s return, at least for the rest of 2021. After that, all bets are off.
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I think Svi Mykhailiuk was the big winner of the preseason. He just has a lot more juice to his game than I thought, and I think he slips ahead of Watanabe on the depth chart, although that will be very malleable. As someone with a little less athletic ability than Watanabe — and someone who’s received less medical attention for a calf strain — I’m not altogether convinced Watanabe will be ready to play on opening night. For what it’s worth, the Raptors have characterized his injury as “not long-term.”
Justin Champagnie isn’t slated for minutes now or later, but he had a nice preseason. His energy could get him on the floor when the Raptors are flat.
Also, Isaac Bonga replaces Freddie Gillespie as a player with a non-guaranteed contract making the team, along with Watanabe and Ish Wainright. Bonga got the start Tuesday in the absence of the injured players, as well as VanVleet and Anunoby. He had four fouls in 14 minutes, but his potential and body type still make sense for the Raptors. Ultimately, Gillespie has had too underwhelming an offseason, although he was very good in the second half against the Wizards.
Sam Dekker might help the Raptors the most, but I don’t think that is what the team will prioritize this season. Reggie Perry also fails to make the Raptors here. He could end up on Raptors 905, as he is on an Exhibit 10 contract. Nurse said those decisions should come shortly after Tuesday’s game, so we’ll get to see how wrong I was imminently.
After the game against the Wizards, Nurse said he didn’t see much separation among the players vying for the last two spots on the roster.
“You could make a case for any of them, you really could,” he said.
| Player | Opening night mins | Full health mins | Trending |
|---|---|---|---|
26 | 21 | Up | |
20 | 18 | Down | |
0 | 23 | Stable |
This is pretty straightforward. It gets much more interesting when Boucher returns from injury — and especially once Siakam gets back. I have to think there will be some significant time where those two, Barnes and Anunoby share the floor with a guard. As solid as Precious Achiuwa and Birch might turn out to be, their best against the league’s true behemoths won’t be good enough. At some point, I’d expect Nurse to go all-in on quickness and length. (That doesn’t preclude Achiuwa from playing in those lineups, but as of now, it limits their offensive potential. That could change if Achiuwa’s development accelerates.)
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Game notes
• The final tally for minutes given to the players on non-guaranteed contracts in the preseason: 44 for Bonga, 38 for Gillespie, 36 for Wainright, 33 for Dekker, 14 for Perry and 17 for Watanabe in his one game.
• The more Achiuwa plays, the better his decision-making should be on both ends. There was no reason for Achiuwa to help out Dragic by attempting to block Spencer Dinwiddie’s layup attempt this late on the drive. He did, which left Daniel Gafford unmanned for the putback. The Raptors have to rotate to help out Achiuwa in that situation, but the decision was made so late that there was really no time to do so.
• Trent’s offence has lagged behind his defence in the preseason, which is something of a surprise. Diversification of his game will be key for his growth, which made his sweet spin move to rid himself of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all the more satisfying. More, please.
• It’s possible most of this stuff will be relegated to Mississauga, but I dug Banton freeing himself to get into the paint, and I really dug Champagnie having the IQ to make the cut once he did.
The vision
The dime@DALANOBANTON pic.twitter.com/qt7oX9susE— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) October 12, 2021
• This was the second consecutive game that the Raptors’ opponent was into the penalty, shooting free throws quickly in the first quarter. Playing as aggressively as they do, the Raptors will have to live with some bad fouls. However, the Raptors committed the most fouls on a per-possession basis last year, and you cannot defend free throws. They’re going to have to be mindful of that.
• Dragic was understandably deferential in his first two preseason games as he tried to gain a feel for his new teammate. It was fun to see him unleashed as the lead guard in this one. I am a fan of Dragic’s lefty flair, whether it is to open up a driving lane or to get a teammate an open look. He had 16 points in 22 minutes.
• I thought Flynn did a nice job jostling with Bradley Beal, although that isn’t going to help quiet the “Red VanVleet” jokes. He was a huge part of the Raptors’ fourth-quarter explosion to take the game, too, finishing with a team-high 22 points
Clutch And-1.
13 PTS in the 4th.Malachi Flynn getting it done late in the @Raptors win. #NBAPreseason pic.twitter.com/907gYTLE2Z
— NBA (@NBA) October 13, 2021
• I was in the process of writing “maybe Scottie Barnes was tired after four games in six nights,” and then he swatted the heck out of Raul Neto after chasing him around a screen. Not his best night of the preseason, and he looked a bit lost chasing Bradley Beal around screens, which led to some easy looks inside for Montrezl Harrell, but you still have to feel good about his work overall.
Defence creating offence
Love it pic.twitter.com/tqUkTSx7zY
— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) October 12, 2021
• This was my first time listening to Alvin Williams on the Raptors broadcast, and I thought he did a nice job. My highlight was Williams remembering that he felt as if the Raptors’ final roster spot in the lockout-shortened 1999 season was going to come down to him or Percy “Master P” Miller. The Raptors made the right choice.
• Dekker went on quite the scoring binge in his appearance in the second half, scoring 18 points in 16 minutes. Regardless of whether he makes the team, that will be a few nice clips for the highlight pack.
OH WORD, @dekker 👀 pic.twitter.com/SHutSo2PzH
— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) October 13, 2021
(Photo of Goran Dragic: Brad Mills / USA Today)
