SPC AC 080111

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0811 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
   IN...NORTHERN KY...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern
   Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the evening.  A few tornadoes
   (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds
   are all possible.

   ...Ohio Valley vicinity into parts of the Mid South...
   Scattered supercells are ongoing early this evening from southeast
   lower MI into south-central/southeast IN. While the primary
   shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet will continue
   moving northeast into Ontario with time, a moderate southwesterly
   low-level jet will help to maintain convection as it moves into a
   larger part of OH/KY, with additional development possible later
   tonight into parts of the Mid South.

   A favorable supercell environment is expected to persist across
   parts of southern and eastern IN into KY and OH. While midlevel
   lapse rates are weak, relatively rich low-level moisture will
   continue to support moderate to locally strong MLCAPE (generally
   1500-3000 J/kg), with only a gradual increase in MLCINH expected
   through the evening. Favorable low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH
   generally increasing above 200 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat,
   including some potential for strong tornadoes. 

   Some severe threat will spread eastward late tonight toward WV and
   western PA, though a gradual weakening trend is expected as storms
   encounter decreasing instability. Also, while large-scale ascent
   will generally be weaker with southwestward extent, an isolated
   severe storm or two remains possible later tonight into parts of AR
   and perhaps into the ArkLaTex region. 

   ...Southeast KS into southwest MO...
   Low-level moisture is expected to surge northward across OK into
   southeast KS into southwest MO late tonight. Guidance continues to
   suggest some potential for convection to develop near/north of the
   warm front prior to 12Z. Should this occur, strong MUCAPE and
   sufficient deep-layer would support a threat of isolated hail and
   strong/damaging gusts.

   ..Dean.. 05/08/2024

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