SPC AC 251730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
   WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern
   Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and
   continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks.
   Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging
   winds will all be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday
   morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper
   Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany
   this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for
   thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be
   in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA.
   Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains
   into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep
   surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday
   evening.

   ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and
   Iowa...
   Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
   period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent
   lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should
   tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could
   occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of
   moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern
   NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing
   aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should
   remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and
   developing warm sector.

   Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective
   development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast
   KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor
   supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail
   as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central
   IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear
   associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these
   tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across
   northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an
   appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue
   to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly
   elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance
   trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been
   adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA.

   ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
   Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are
   expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX
   into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at
   least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it
   eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to
   regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability
   axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern
   extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable
   low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized
   convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat
   for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes
   persisting.

   Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer
   shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the
   dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the
   departing upper trough to the north, additional development along
   the dryline across this region should remain very
   isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a
   threat for very large hail and a tornado.

   ...Northwest Texas...
   The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX
   late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form
   prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in
   advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest.
   MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized
   convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated
   thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning.

   ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024

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