Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 29, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 29 12:32:30 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240329 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240329 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291232

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0732 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

   Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe hail is possible over portions of the Midwest
   tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   The mid/upper-level pattern will feature strong, progressive troughs
   -- each with an accompanying synoptic-scale cyclone -- near the East
   and West Coasts, and low-amplitude, large-scale ridging in between. 
   The western low -- quite prominent in moisture-channel imagery now
   west of Cape Mendocino -- should move southeastward and stay
   offshore from CA through the period.  However, downstream  southwest
   flow and several embedded vorticity lobes/shortwaves will move over
   the Intermountain West.  Portions of the central and northern
   Rockies, as well as the Pacific Coast, should reside beneath enough
   midlevel cooling/instability and low/middle-level moisture to
   support isolated thunderstorms.  Downstream, a leading shortwave
   trough is evident from southern SK across eastern MT to central WY. 
   This feature should move eastward across the northern Plains today,
   reaching the eastern Dakotas by 00Z, and crossing the upper
   Mississippi Valley around 12Z tomorrow.

   At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low near HLC,
   with short cold front southwestward over western KS, and warm front
   across northern MO, south-central IL, to near CVG, and northern WV. 
   Another low was apparent over southeastern SK, with a trough
   connecting these lows across the western Dakotas and central NE. 
   By 00Z, the southern low should reach southwestern/central IA, with
   cold front southwestward over southwestern KS, and warm front across
   central IL to southern IN.  A trough -- with some reinforcement
   related to the mid/upper perturbation -- still should extend from
   that low to the northern one, by then near the southern SK/MB line. 
   By 12Z, the southern low should approach the southwestern shore of
   Lake Michigan (near the IL/WI line), with cold front to northern MO,
   northern OK and the TX Panhandle.  The warm front should extend from
   the low across southwestern Lower MI to western/southern OH.

   ...Midwest...
   During the day, the central Plains to Midwest should remain capped
   for substantial, surface-based convection, the result of a
   combination of advection of EML air aloft from higher terrain in the
   West, with insufficient moisture and lift.  However, with continued
   moist/warm advection in the increasing LLJ, and the approach of
   large-scale DCVA/lift aloft related to the mid/upper trough,
   convective potential will increase this evening north of the warm
   front over parts of IA/IL.  Isentropic lift to LFC will occur as
   parcels saturate in the 700-850-mb layer and MUCINH erodes rather
   quickly.  Resulting elevated thunderstorms should shift eastward
   into southern WI and central/northern IL, then late overnight, the
   Michiana/northwest OH area.  

   Greatest inflow-layer buoyancy and hail potential should be with
   relatively discrete cells in the early stage of the convective
   process across IA/IL, then mainly the southern part of the
   thunderstorm area as it crosses IL.  Expect MUCAPE of around 500-700
   J/kg developing from southern IA to central IL, decreasing to under
   300 J/kg over much of southern WI.  In forecast soundings,
   effective-shear magnitudes vary a lot with CAPE depth, but generally
   should be in a 30-40 kt range to support some thunderstorm
   organization.  Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out either,
   given a relatively dry subcloud layer present in forecast soundings,
   and potential for downdraft winds to penetrate a relatively shallow,
   near-surface stable layer.  However, severe-gust potential still
   appears too uncertain and unfocused for a wind area to be added at
   this time.

   ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/29/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 29, 2024
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities