Blue Jays’ 2022 outlook: A 10-step plan for a successful offseason

The Blue Jays are only days into their offseason after a promising 2021 season came to a disappointing end, falling a win short of the postseason.

In that way, their 91-71 record is bittersweet. It’s an accomplishment to reach that threshold, especially considering they went 67-95 only two seasons ago. But their final record this season wasn’t enough, especially in as competitive a division as the American League East, which sported four teams with 90-plus win records.

In some ways, how the Blue Jays performed in 2021 means their offseason plan is clear-cut. A 91-win total means they have the foundation of a competitive team with players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and Alek Manoah. But to take the team to the next level and reach the postseason, they need to further supplement the core.

“The sentiment amongst our clubhouse and amongst our staff, and certainly in our front office, is exceptionally optimistic about where this team is headed and excited about this offseason for us and the potential to continue to build upon the progress that has been made,” Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said this week. “Obviously, we’re not where we want to be yet. We need to be playing deep into the playoffs to take that next step, but we do feel like the organization has continued to get better and improve, and we’re in a better position than we were a year ago as we go into this offseason.”

So, what does an ideal offseason look like for Toronto? Here is a 10-step plan for a successful winter for the Blue Jays.

1. Keep spending like a big-market contender

Two offseasons ago, it was spending $80 million on Hyun Jin Ryu. Last winter, it was getting Springer for $150 million. For the last two years, the Blue Jays front office — and therefore ownership — has shown a willingness to spend big on impactful free agents in pursuit of making the club better. There is no reason to suspect the Blue Jays won’t be in a position this offseason to once again spend like the big-market team they are.

Atkins said Wednesday the Blue Jays are in “a really good position” to spend money and flex their prospect capital to acquire talent via trade. On payroll specifically, Atkins said he believes the club has the backing of the Rogers ownership to spend as it has in recent offseasons.

“That is our desire and that is our understanding,” Atkins said. “As we sit today, we feel as though we will have the support. We’ve always had it, and (team president) Mark (Shapiro) has done a remarkable job of just every step of the way sharing our vision, helping understand where our focus is and giving rationale for why we want to do the things that we’re trying to do. And we’ve always had that support and expect to have it moving forward.”

The Blue Jays have just about $65 million committed to four players — Springer, Ryu, Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — in 2022. A handful of players are arbitration-eligible — including José Berríos, Teoscar Hernández and Guerrero (for the first time) — and that’ll raise their 2022 payroll, too. In 2021, the Blue Jays had an Opening Day payroll of about $135 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. But as recently as 2018, they had an Opening Day payroll of approximately $162 million, so there’s room to go up.

Whatever the end figure ends up being, the Blue Jays should have the flexibility to add via free agency and/or take on salary in trades in hopes of improving in 2022 and beyond.

2. Try re-signing Semien and Ray

Last winter’s one-year deals for Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray couldn’t have gone any better for the Blue Jays.

Ray and Semien enjoyed career seasons with Toronto, with the former in contention to win the Cy Young Award and the latter likely to finish in the top three of MVP voting. Ray and Semien were well liked in the clubhouse and provided leadership. They have positioned themselves well for the offseason and are expected to garner a lot of interest, including from the Blue Jays, who, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, approached Semien with an offer in-season and planned to do the same with Ray in the offseason.

“That dialogue will be constant, where we’re talking about their interest, our interest and hoping that they’re aligned,” Atkins said of hopes of bringing back both players.

Although Ray and Semien expressed an openness to remain in Toronto long-term, it’s also not surprising they want to explore the free-agent market to see what their true value is. After all, both signed one-year, bet-on-myself deals to do exactly that.

The challenge for the Blue Jays will be trying to weigh the benefit of bringing both players back — or just one — against the cost of what those big salaries will mean for the team’s long-term plan. In addition, the Blue Jays will have to examine whether they believe both players are capable of repeating their performance in 2022 and beyond.

The Blue Jays can — and likely will — at least offer Ray and Semien qualifying offers, which last year was valued at $18.9 million and will presumably fall around that range again. Assuming they reject the offer, the Blue Jays will receive compensation draft picks if both sign elsewhere, recouping some value from the loss of those players.

3. Build a five-man rotation with depth

Steven Matz is another member of their 2021 rotation who will be a free agent. Matz overcame some midseason bumps, including contracting COVID-19, to have a strong second half, leading to his best season since 2016. He finished with a 3.82 ERA, 3.79 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. He was the club’s first 14-win pitcher since 2016 and was worth 2.8 fWAR over 29 starts (150 2/3 IP).

There was a lot to like about Matz’s season, especially the second half, and Atkins expressed interest in bringing back the left-hander. Extending qualifying offers to Semien and Ray seems like a no-brainer, but Matz is a more interesting case. Although he might be tempted to accept a QO, he may want to seek out more term and stability. And do the Blue Jays want that much tied up for only one year of his services? They will have to weigh that.

Although the Blue Jays’ rotation is in a good place for 2022 with Manoah, Berríos, Ryu and depth that includes Nate Pearson, Ross Stripling, Anthony Kay and Thomas Hatch, it’s still not enough. Whether both Matz and Ray come back or neither does, a major focus for the Blue Jays this winter is on “making our rotation better,” as Atkins put it. (And better is a lofty goal, since their rotation ranked sixth in MLB, per ERA, in 2021).

Other starting pitchers on the market include some greats like Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. Another tier includes guys like Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly, Michael Pineda, Noah Syndergaard and Jon Gray, among others.

4. Fortify the bullpen

Much like the rotation, the Blue Jays have a base of relievers to build upon. Jordan Romano established himself as the team’s closer, while Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards were reliable setup men. All four are under team control for several years. There are also a few other pieces, like Ryan Borucki and Julian Merryweather, they’ll want to see more from next spring. But the bullpen still needs reinforcements.

A year ago, the Blue Jays leaned into high-risk, high-reward signings like Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood. Neither panned out, with the former out for the year with an injury before spring training was over and the latter losing all command by May. David Phelps was a more stable addition, but he suffered a season-ending injury a month in, underlining the precarious nature of signing relief pitchers.

The reliever market will have plenty of options, as it always does, but one thing the Blue Jays might target is more swing-and-miss potential. For how good Cimber and Mayza were, they rely more on pitching to soft contact than striking out batters. But adding some more strikeout potential — via high velocity or stuff-wise — could strengthen their relief group.

5. Engage in extension talks with young stars

The Blue Jays are heading toward a balancing act as they try to reinforce a team that just won 91 games, taking it from good to great while keeping a long-term plan in place to keep their core players together. And those core players — Guerrero, Hernández, Bichette, etc. — are only going to cost more money from here on out.

Guerrero will be in his first year of arbitration this winter, and Hernández is in his second. Bichette will hit his arbitration years beginning in 2023, and Gurriel’s deal will end after the 2023 season. The Blue Jays need to bring in players to help them now, but they also must take care not to handcuff themselves in the years to come.

“You have to be careful … you always have to be thinking about that,” Atkins said. “At the same time, it doesn’t mean that we’re not going to have another very significant deal with a lot of term to it, or maybe more than one, maybe more than two. But you always need to have that five- and six-year understanding for what that means for the team and the organization.”

One way to navigate this is to sign some of their players to extensions to create some cost certainty for themselves, rather than rely on arbitration year in and year out when the salaries are shifting. Of course, it’s up to the players, too, and guys such as Guerrero and Bichette might want to reach free agency. But the Blue Jays said they have at least approached some players about extensions and those discussions will be ongoing this winter, too.

“We’re always thinking about that, and we are motivated to keep not just our younger players but players that have expiring contracts in the next year or two, to keep this group together,” Atkins said. “It’s constant. And obviously, not every individual is the same, as I mentioned, where they are in their careers, but the offseason does allow for, potentially, depending upon how things are transpiring, it will allow for just another opportunity where we can engage a little bit more, specifically, with our players because it’s not as stressful of a time.”

6. Add different looks to offence

The Blue Jays offence was very good in 2021. They were aggressive early in counts, they hit for power, they hit for average and they produced a lot of runs. They were among the most dangerous offences in the majors. But they could be made better by diversifying the lineup.

The Blue Jays are a right-handed-heavy lineup, and that makes their lineup easier to game plan for.

“You saw even just when (Corey) Dickerson was having good at-bats and when Cavan Biggio came into the lineup, it’s not just that they’re left-handed but how we are attacked, and potentially the pitchers that are used are different,” Atkins said.

The Blue Jays were the best first-pitch-hitting team in the majors, but that resulted in averaging just 3.83 pitches per plate appearance, the third fewest. Mixing in more patient hitters who project to have higher on-base percentages could offer a balance that would complement Toronto’s predominantly aggressive-swinging offence.

“We feel it’s important to have balance, and not just the same type of hitters throughout, up and down your lineup. So, some players that are more batting-average driven and some players that are more on-base driven with plate discipline,” Atkins said. “I think having both is exceptionally powerful, and having a combination of all those things is ultimately, I think, what we’re striving to do.”

Getting a more consistent performance from Biggio could help with this next year. Dickerson is a free agent, and the team could choose to bring him back to add another lefty bat. Outfielder and left-handed-hitting Gregory Polanco got a look with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons and had a 1.183 OPS in 24 games. The Blue Jays could offer him a minor-league deal and invite him to spring training. The club can explore free agency and trade to address this, too.

7. Consider third-base market

Third base was a bit of a carousel this season, with seven guys filling in at the position, including Guerrero for two innings. They added up to minus-0.1 bWAR. Biggio came into the season as the starting third baseman, but he struggled early adjusting to the position, then missed more than 80 games with an injury. Santiago Espinal filled in well, impressing defensively and offensively, hitting .311/.376/.405 in 92 games. When he was injured, Breyvic Valera, Jake Lamb — already designated for assignment — and Kevin Smith filled in.

Atkins left the possibility of addressing third base open — though as is typical with this front office, it doesn’t like to box itself into a corner with position needs and prefers to target players it can then mold the roster around. (This was the case with the Semien signing.)

“There are ways for us to field teams without signing a third baseman, but it is an area that we will obviously be thinking about in free agency and trade,” Atkins said.

In free agency, some options could include a high-end target like Kris Bryant or Corey Seager (if he’d be willing to move to third). Trade-wise, José Ramirez and the Cleveland Guardians will likely generate a lot of trade buzz this season.

8. Explore trade possibilities

The Blue Jays can spend money to add free agents, but we also saw them make a splash on the trade market this season, moving two of their top prospects to the Minnesota Twins for Berríos. The Blue Jays have mainly focussed on acquiring talent via free agency the last two offseason, but if more teams spend in free agency this winter, the trade market could wake up, too.

The Blue Jays still have a highly regarded farm system from which they can deal. There is also the option of moving players off their major-league roster — especially at a position at which they have some surplus, like the outfield — in exchange for acquiring another major-league player who might be a better fit. This isn’t something the Blue Jays have done much of recently, but Atkins said they’re willing to explore those opportunities.

“We’re just constantly trying to be more balanced and more versatile, and that just doesn’t happen overnight,” he said. “Sometimes it may take addition by subtraction. We haven’t done much of that; we haven’t subtracted for our major-league team. We have to be open to all avenues.”

On their roster, a player like Grichuk, Biggio or even Gurriel could be viewed as a trade candidate, though any movement of their MLB players would certainly depend on who and what is coming back.

9. Find a successful path forward for Pearson

Before the 2021 season, there were high hopes Pearson could have his breakout rookie campaign. Instead, he spent significant time on the injured list dealing with a sports hernia. This week, Atkins said Pearson was getting assessed by a doctor to see whether a procedure was needed, but the Blue Jays GM said Pearson “really felt good at the end of the season.”

The most important thing for Pearson will be staying healthy. Between 2020 and 2021, he pitched only 63 2/3 innings, with 33 of those coming at the MLB level. Pearson is still regarded as one of the team’s best young arms, and he showed his potential down the stretch in 2021 with 20 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. But he just needs more consistent innings, and finding a successful path forward to maximize his potential will be key.

In talking about the 25-year-old right-hander, Atkins said, “We’re hopeful that Pearson will be someone that’s more of an extended outing, closer to a starter look for us.” He said they still view Pearson as a potential starter but have to be mindful of his workload and where he is in his development given the missed time. A comp could be how the Rays deployed starter Shane McClanahan this season, who averaged just fewer than five innings per start.

“It’s just too hard to say exactly what it will look like, but on the spectrum of things, I hope it looks a lot more like a starter than a reliever,” Atkins said. “But we’ll be open to all roles and all ways to have him help us win.”

10. Settle the 40-man roster crunch

Every offseason, teams have to take a hard look at their 40-man roster, deciding who to add, including protecting young players from the Rule 5 draft, and who to drop from the fringes of their roster, all while leaving room for potential additions in the offseason. The Blue Jays will be no different this winter.

Subtracting the free agents, the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster will be at 35 at the outset of the offseason. Several key prospects will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year whom the team will have to consider adding to its roster, including Eric Pardinho, Leo Jimenez, Miguel Hiraldo, Joey Murray, Zach Logue and a few others. To make additional room on the roster, the Blue Jays can explore trading some of the players on the fringes — Valera, Reese McGuire, Jacob Barnes, Trent Thornton — like they did last year with Derek Fisher.

(Photo of Marcus Semien: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)