SPC AC 200048

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0748 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

   Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe threat appears minimal with thunderstorms tonight.

   ...01z Update...

   Very isolated thunderstorms continue this evening across the
   southern Appalachian region into the Carolinas. This activity
   developed in large part due to strong boundary-layer heating in
   conjunction with frontal forcing and orographic influences. However,
   nocturnal cooling and weak large-scale forcing favor gradual
   weakening over the next few hours. While a few flashes of lightning
   will be noted with the most robust updrafts, the probability of
   severe appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk overnight.

   Upstream, weak mid-level short-wave trough is advancing across far
   west TX. This feature will encourage weak LLJ across the Edwards
   Plateau later this evening, and a corridor of focused low-level warm
   advection will become established from northwest TX into the Red
   River region late. Elevated thunderstorms will develop along this
   zone, and while hail can't be ruled out with the strongest storms,
   the risk of hail, in excess of 1 inch, appears too low to warrant
   severe probabilities.

   ..Darrow.. 04/20/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z