SPC AC 250730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NE...MUCH OF
   OK...AND PART OF NORTH TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
   Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently
   anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where
   very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be
   possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from
   south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to
   gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes
   region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will
   move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone
   across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream
   northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, with favorable
   moisture also extending northeast into the Great Lakes region.

   ...Parts of the central/southern Plains...
   While details remain uncertain, scattered significantly severe
   thunderstorms may develop across parts of the central/southern
   Plains Saturday into Saturday night, with all severe hazards
   (including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes) possible. 

   As the approaching upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the
   moist warm sector of the deepening cyclone, strengthening low-level
   and deep-layer shear will overspread moderate to locally strong
   instability from KS into parts of TX/OK. There is some potential for
   early convection to develop and spread from northwest TX into OK.
   This early convection would likely pose some severe threat if it
   materializes, though it would complicate the scenario for later in
   the day. 

   If the warm sector stays relatively undisturbed, then scattered
   supercell development is expected along the dryline by late
   afternoon, along with some potential for warm-sector development
   farther east, and also near a northward moving warm front across
   northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE/southwest IA. Very large
   hail will be the most likely initial threat, though the tornado
   threat will increase with time, as the low-level jet strengthens
   through the day. Any supercells that persist into late
   afternoon/early evening across the warm sector could pose an
   increasing strong tornado threat with time. Some areas may see more
   than one round of severe storms, with multiple clusters expected to
   develop through the evening, with some threat for all severe hazards
   potentially lasting into late evening.

   ...Great Lakes vicinity...
   Coverage of storms into parts of the Great Lakes remains somewhat
   uncertain on Saturday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough,
   but a conditionally favorable storm environment will likely develop
   into the afternoon/evening into parts of WI/IL and MI, as relatively
   rich low-level moisture remains in place and deep-layer shear
   remains rather strong. Some threat for all severe hazards could
   evolve across the region, along/ahead of a cold front, with some
   threat potentially lasting into the evening as convection spreads
   northeast from the Plains.

   ..Dean.. 04/25/2024

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