(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180806
SPC AC 180806
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive
trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow
across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A
cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on
Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX
toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure
will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but
return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around
Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over
the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for
most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or
beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles.
..Jewell.. 04/18/2024
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