SPC AC 100729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
   southern Plains on Sunday.

   ...Southern Plains...
   A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the
   central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning,
   accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from
   northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is
   forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern
   High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and
   southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow
   will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower
   MS Valley. 

   The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern
   Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's
   thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early
   morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a
   large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded
   thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into
   western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General
   cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to
   persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level
   moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this
   cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in
   fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the
   cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. 

   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this
   corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant
   to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along
   and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong
   enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the
   primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution,
   and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher
   that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are
   forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An
   attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the
   Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely
   destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid
   low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm
   development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear
   should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting
   the overall severe potential.

   ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z