(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 291019
SPC AC 291019
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four
Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains
in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley.
Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern
Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely
focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the
afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense
storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening,
and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the
region from the west-southwest
Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from
northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending
eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast
to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet
ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the
jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon
and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong
deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable
for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas,
Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley.
Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the
low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region
during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the
overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
...Tuesday/Day 5...
The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks
and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will
likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early
in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is
expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the
afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio
Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat
will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with
the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind
damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast
to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within
a moist and unstable airmass.
...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic
Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front
during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern
Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any
severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus
suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on
previous days further west.
On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to
move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the
potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S.
..Broyles.. 03/29/2024
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