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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 29, 2024
Updated: Fri Mar 29 10:21:03 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Mon, Apr 01, 2024 - Tue, Apr 02, 2024 D7Thu, Apr 04, 2024 - Fri, Apr 05, 2024
D5Tue, Apr 02, 2024 - Wed, Apr 03, 2024 D8Fri, Apr 05, 2024 - Sat, Apr 06, 2024
D6Wed, Apr 03, 2024 - Thu, Apr 04, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 291019
   SPC AC 291019

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

   Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Monday/Day 4...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four
   Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains
   in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley.
   Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern
   Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely
   focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the
   afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense
   storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening,
   and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the
   region from the west-southwest

   Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from
   northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending
   eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast
   to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet
   ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the
   jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon
   and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong
   deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable
   for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas,
   Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley.
   Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the
   low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region
   during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the
   overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

   ...Tuesday/Day 5...
   The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks
   and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will
   likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early
   in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is
   expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous
   thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the
   afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio
   Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat
   will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with
   the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind
   damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast
   to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the
   Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within
   a moist and unstable airmass.

   ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
   An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on
   Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic
   Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front
   during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern
   Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any
   severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus
   suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on
   previous days further west.

   On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to
   move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the
   potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S.

   ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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