SPC AC 190545

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts
   of the Southeast later today.

   ...Southeast...

   Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley
   into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates
   from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will
   necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern
   Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of
   this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower
   latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing
   through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will
   prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal
   convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial,
   convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until
   surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model
   guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC
   will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across
   this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is
   expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations
   of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the
   Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating.

   ...TX...

   Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across
   central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This
   boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher
   terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast
   slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of
   low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher
   terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer
   east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will
   develop  across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward
   the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this
   activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this
   time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may
   warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more
   favorable.

   Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm
   advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red
   River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this
   region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant
   for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful
   large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be
   as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated
   with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to
   warrant severe probabilities at this time.

   ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024

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