SPC AC 221938
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe
wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida
coast this afternoon.
No changes were made to the ongoing outlook.
A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal
counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak
boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or
brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to
storms moving offshore.
..Jewell.. 04/22/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/
...South FL...
Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the
Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front
over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave
trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico
--embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will
continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening.
Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield
moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to
develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon.
Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will
potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk
for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary
hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east
of the coast by early evening.
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of
the contiguous United States.
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