(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170854
SPC AC 170854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Saturday/D4, a large but progressive upper trough will move
across the Northeast, with a deep upper low over Hudson Bay. West of
the initial trough, west/northwest flow will prevail across the
CONUS, with various embedded waves. A front will linger from the
Carolinas westward into TX, but will gradually shift south as high
pressure spreads southeast out of the Plains. The undercutting cool
air will lead to substantial clouds and precipitation over the
southern Plains on Saturday, with scattered rain and thunderstorms
across the Gulf Coast states. While moist, instability will become
limited due to lack of heating in many areas, and as such severe
storms are not currently forecast.
From Sunday/D5 and beyond, rain and a few thunderstorms will
continue over parts of the Southeast as the cold front pushes
offshore, with progressive drying each day. Beyond about Tuesday/D7,
indications are that southwest flow aloft may return to parts of the
western CONUS, with gradual moisture return into the southern
Plains.
..Jewell.. 04/17/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
