SPC AC 191231

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

   Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts
   of the Southeast later today.

   ...Southeast this afternoon/evening...
   A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves
   eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley.  An associated surface
   cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the
   southern Appalachians.  A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some
   by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern
   Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by
   early-mid afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with
   the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with
   little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west.  Still, widely
   scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon
   in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain
   circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. 
   Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening
   low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized
   storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally
   severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening.

   ...TX through tonight...
   Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor
   thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre
   Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a
   couple of supercells.  However, it is not clear that storm motions
   will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering
   convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they
   manage to cross the border.  Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated
   convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm
   advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM.
   Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates
   and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail
   appears too low to warrant an outlook area.

   ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024

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