(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250900
SPC AC 250900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Sunday - Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley...
Some severe threat is expected persist into D4/Sunday from northeast
TX into parts of the upper MS Valley, as an amplified
mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains into
the upper Great Lakes region. Substantial convection on D3/Saturday
results in some uncertainty regarding storm evolution on Sunday.
However, guidance generally suggests that a strong mid/upper-level
jet associated with the ejecting shortwave will overspread a
relatively moist warm sector, with potential redevelopment of
organized convection along/ahead of a cold front.
There is some potential for the threat to be bimodal, with one
potential area from eastern KS into northern MO and IA in closer
proximity to the ejecting shortwave, and a separate area across the
ArkLaTex vicinity, within a region of somewhat more favorable
moisture and instability. However, with storm evolution remaining
rather uncertain, a continuous 15% area has been maintained in this
outlook, with some adjustments.
...D5/Monday - Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley...
Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough
will move across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley on Monday.
There is some potential for this shortwave to impinge upon a region
of moderate to strong buoyancy along and south of a weak surface
boundary that may begin to lift northward across parts of TX/LA
during the day. A few severe storms with a threat of hail and
damaging winds would be possible in this scenario. However,
uncertainty related to substantial antecedent convection and its
effect on boundary placement renders predictability too low for
probabilities at this time.
...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday...
Spread begins to notably increase in extended-range guidance
regarding pattern evolution by D6/Tuesday. In general, stronger
mid/upper-level flow is expected to shift northward, through there
will be some potential for shortwave troughs and related cold fronts
to impinge upon a reservoir of richer low-level moisture and
stronger buoyancy from the southern Plains into parts of the
Southeast/OH Valley. Confidence in the details regarding any severe
potential in this time frame is much too low for probabilities with
this outlook.
..Dean.. 04/25/2024
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