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< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Mar 28, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 28 16:55:23 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240328 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240328 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281655

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to
   continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough
   will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone
   moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between
   the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves
   will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains
   and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is
   currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley
   within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in
   association with the offshore cyclone. 

   ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley...
   Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s
   F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a
   weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward
   southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may
   develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is
   currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm
   development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become
   increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level
   warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be
   sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated
   buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to
   limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than
   currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development
   becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may
   eventually be needed.

   ..Dean.. 03/28/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: March 28, 2024
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