SPC AC 131243

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

   Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
   AND WESTERN GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts
   are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia,
   and parts of the Florida Panhandle today.

   ...Synopsis...
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced
   mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within
   a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley.  The
   mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid
   evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow
   shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf.  Farther
   west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into
   the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across
   southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period.  A cold
   front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert.

   ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia
   and the western Florida Panhandle...
   South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect
   modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this
   morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA
   raobs).  This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated
   mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5
   deg C/km per raob data).  Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over
   northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. 
   Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to
   southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around
   500-1000 J/kg.  As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing
   airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this
   afternoon.  Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a
   few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat
   for severe.  This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to
   the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent.

   ...Southern Arizona...
   As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and
   thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow
   aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward
   across the Mexico border.  It is possible some higher momentum flow
   may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe
   limits within convection.  Overall, the weak thermal profile would
   suggest the severe threat will remain low.

   ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2307Z (11:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME