SPC AC 261958

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

   Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail
   (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain
   possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into
   Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and
   northeast Texas.

   ...20Z Update...
   Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across
   central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest
   observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has
   recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with
   additional development possible across north-central into
   east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that
   can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large
   hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and
   sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will
   also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per
   recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe
   threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531.

   A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues
   across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front.
   Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong
   low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado
   potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into
   eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference
   Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information.

   Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may
   develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk
   for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account
   for this isolated severe potential.

   ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/

   ...NE/IA/MO/KS...
   Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across
   KS/NE.  A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over
   central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS.  A
   corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline
   over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to
   moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by
   mid-afternoon.  Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles
   will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with
   very large hail and tornadoes possible.  These storms will progress
   eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening.
    A strong tornado or two is possible in this region.

   ...OK/MO/AR...
   A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened
   and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture
   occurring in the wake of the system.  By mid-afternoon, mid-upper
   60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. 
   Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and
   favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of
   all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. 
   Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR
   this evening.  CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but
   parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given
   the conditional risk of significant severe weather.

   ...Northeast TX...
   A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts
   of northeast and east-central TX today.  A cluster of
   severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco,
   TX.  These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the
   afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. 
   Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with
   sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell
   structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail.  Given
   the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also
   upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH.

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