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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 28, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 28 12:47:38 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240328 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240328 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281247

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive, but deamplify
   temporarily, through the end of the period.  This will occur as a
   strong synoptic-scale trough -- initially extending from northern ON
   across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the central Gulf -- pivots
   preferentially faster eastward in its southern parts.  By 12Z
   tomorrow, the synoptic trough will become negatively tilted from a
   low over James bay across the NYC area, then to a basal shortwave
   trough offshore from the Atlantic Coast farther south.  That
   shortwave -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the
   central Gulf Coast -- will follow a cold front offshore.  Before
   that, however, a few more hours of general thunder potential are
   possible over coastal NC, including the sounds and Outer Banks. 
   Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over much of the FL
   Peninsula amid favorable moisture along/ahead of the front, but with
   coverage limited by modest lift.  Mid/upper-level winds and deep
   shear remain strong across the region, and a few cells moving
   through a diurnally destabilizing thermodynamic profile inland may
   produce strong gusts or small hail.

   Elsewhere, a large mid/upper-level cyclone was centered about 300 nm
   west of HQM, with synoptic trough extending south-southeastward
   offshore from the West Coast.  As a strengthening shortwave trough
   south of the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward to west of north-
   central CA through the period, the cyclone will weaken, but the
   larger-scale trough will be maintained.  Several variably sized/
   shaped shortwave perturbations were noted in downstream southwest
   flow over the Pacific Coast States and Intermountain West.  Related
   large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates, with patches of
   weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture, will combine to support
   isolated general-thunder potential over parts of the West. This
   includes the Northwest Coast, where the cool but moist Pacific
   marine layer will underlie coldest air aloft.

   ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/28/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: March 28, 2024
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