SPC AC 070510

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Ohio Valley
   today. A few tornadoes, potentially strong, large to very large
   hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible.

   ...Ohio Valley...

   Plains upper trough will eject northeast across the mid/upper MS
   Valley early in the period as 80+kt 500mb speed max translates from
   northern OK into western IL by 18z, then into extreme southwest MI
   by early evening. Primary corridor of mid-level height falls will
   spread north of this jet, though 30-60m, 12hr falls are expected as
   far south as I-70 across IN/OH during the expected convective cycle.
   In response to this short wave, southwesterly LLJ will shift into
   IL/IN by 18z, then into the mid OH Valley by late afternoon. This
   evolution will encourage considerable moistening early in the period
   and buoyancy will increase markedly by mid day within a strongly
   sheared, but deep southwesterly flow regime.

   Current thinking is ongoing convection, associated with this trough,
   will propagate into the mid MS Valley by daybreak, then advance
   downstream with some propensity for weakening during the morning.
   However, boundary-layer heating after this initial activity will
   result in a modest-strongly unstable air mass by early afternoon.
   Convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings warm
   through the 70s to near 80F, and isolated-scattered thunderstorms
   should evolve along the southern fringe of the main jet core.
   Forecast soundings across the OH Valley exhibit favorable
   shear/buoyancy for supercells, especially given the steep lapse
   rates. Storms that evolve within this environment will likely remain
   discrete, or perhaps evolve into some clusters. Tornadoes, a few
   strong, are possible along with very large hail. Some damaging winds
   are also possible.

   ...TX...

   While the primary upper trough will have ejected well northeast of
   the southern Plains by afternoon, trailing surface boundary across
   TX may provide adequate convergence for a few storms later today.
   Strong surface heating is forecast across western into south-central
   TX. With readings expected to approach 90F near this boundary,
   convective temperatures may be breached allowing isolated
   thunderstorms to evolve within a strongly sheared environment. If
   so, a few supercells could evolve and large hail would be the
   primary concern.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/07/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z