SPC AC 231726

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
   INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of
   Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the
   primary hazards.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western
   Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another
   shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is
   anticipated between these two troughs. This entire
   trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the
   period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the
   Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western
   shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending
   from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early
   Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these
   troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains.

   At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave
   will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by
   the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the
   evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early
   Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas
   Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the
   day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same
   time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will
   contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the
   southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday
   night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing
   northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front.

   ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday...
   Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from
   the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK
   within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of
   the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly
   flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts
   and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large
   hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm
   severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon
   as they move generally southeastward.

   ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon...
   Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the
   southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints
   are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the
   early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated
   capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some
   isolated development does appear probable, particularly where
   persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm
   development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear,
   any convection that is maintained and matures should become
   supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail
   and strong, damaging downdrafts. 

   ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning...
   Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern
   TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into
   Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in
   advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy
   and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat
   within any more established storms.

   ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...
   Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold
   front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the
   region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning
   isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts
   augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place.

   ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024

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