SPC AC 250046

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

   Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible across portions
   of the southern and central Plains.

   ...01z Update...

   Extensive mid-high cloudiness appears to be partly responsible for
   the lack of deep boundary-layer cu across the TX South Plains into
   the Permian Basin early this evening. While surface temperatures
   warmed into the mid 80s across the Permian Basin, weak inhibition
   persists across this region. 00z sounding from MAF supports this,
   with a warm layer at 700mb serving as a cap for surface-based
   parcels. While several HREF members suggested deep convection would
   have developed by early evening, there is some concern that deep
   convection may remain quite isolated, if it does develop at this
   latitude. As LLJ strengthens across the High Plains tonight there
   should be an increase in elevated convection farther north across
   portions of OK/KS. Storms that develop due to warm advection could
   generate marginally severe hail. Will maintain low severe
   probabilities to account for these scenarios.

   ..Darrow.. 04/25/2024

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