SPC AC 100544

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
   portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas.

   ...Synopsis...
   Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the
   Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving
   into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend
   through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern
   Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of
   this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level
   moisture across the southern High Plains.

   A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern
   stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI
   southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning.
   An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent
   shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN
   Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early
   Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead
   of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger,
   convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region,
   within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching
   shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical
   shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small
   hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the
   day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the
   rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin
   and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General
   expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the
   Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass
   destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. 

   Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence
   along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale
   forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this
   destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in
   updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail
   and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud
   bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low,
   although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist
   farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be
   in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general,
   coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for
   higher severe probabilities with this outlook.

   ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z