SPC AC 070731

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST
   TEXAS INTO THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS...AND
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Thursday
   from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi
   Valley/Southeast, and northeastward into parts of the Carolinas and
   Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Central/East Texas into the Southeast, Carolinas, and
   Mid-Atlantic...
   An upper trough will gradually consolidate and move eastward across
   the Midwest and OH Valley on Thursday. A weak surface low is
   forecast to develop from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through
   the day, with a trailing cold front extending southwestward from
   this low across the Carolinas, Southeast, and into parts of
   central/east TX. The cold front should serve as a focus for
   convective initiation Thursday afternoon. With steep mid-level lapse
   rates present atop a very moist low-level airmass, moderate to
   strong instability is anticipated from central TX into the lower MS
   Valley/Southeast. A weak mid-level perturbation emanating from
   northern Mexico may support convective initiation across
   central/east TX by late Thursday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear
   should support organized convection, with a threat for mainly large
   hail and severe/damaging winds.

   Across the lower MS Valley/Southeast, one or more clusters may form
   along the southward-sagging cold front. A MCS posing a threat for
   mainly damaging winds may eventually evolve and spread
   east-southeastward across parts of LA into southern MS/AL Thursday
   afternoon and perhaps continuing into the night. Farther east into
   the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, weak to moderate instability should
   develop ahead of the cold front with daytime heating. Mid-level flow
   and related deep-layer shear should increase through the day with
   the eastward progression of the upper trough. Thunderstorms should
   gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon,
   especially along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains.
   Hail and damaging winds will be a concern with any clusters or
   supercells that can develop and spread east-southeastward towards
   the Atlantic Coast through Thursday evening.

   ..Gleason.. 05/07/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z