SPC AC 150534

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR
   FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States
   and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant
   tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially
   violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous
   tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi
   during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day
   into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle
   and Georgia Saturday night.

   ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region...

   Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley
   will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong
   mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into
   south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the
   central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to
   this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing
   boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track
   northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ
   will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the
   afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by
   early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture
   content to advance farther north than previous thought.

   Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended
   across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has
   persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest
   thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the
   lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to
   materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest
   surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern
   LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the
   Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong
   buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the
   aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings
   exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2
   across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the
   categorical High Risk delineation.

   While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
   at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection
   should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the
   leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this
   region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent
   development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the
   flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and
   the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track
   tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and
   intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex
   shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany
   these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood
   for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama.

   ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025

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