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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 27 16:11:59 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240327 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240327 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 271611

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

   Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
   NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND  NORTH
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible over parts of
   the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north
   Texas.

   ...Synopsis...
   Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the
   southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the
   Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to
   account for recent trends. 

   ...Southeast CONUS...
   A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the
   northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move
   offshore through the late morning/afternoon. 

   A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as
   weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a
   surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud
   cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida
   Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning
   convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with
   some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to
   allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast
   soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from
   southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula.
   Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by
   late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will
   be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer
   shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far
   northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm
   front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion
   of the Marginal risk into this region.

   ...Central and North Texas....
   Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across
   northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft
   and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will
   largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the
   afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the
   cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few
   transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for
   large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was
   expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance
   to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: March 27, 2024
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