SPC AC 191652

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
   CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO
   SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will
   be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the
   afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into
   southern South Carolina.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the
   Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate
   westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East
   Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the
   southern Plains through Saturday night.

   At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across
   much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal
   Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist
   air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north
   of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms.

   ...TX...
   Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day
   over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east
   toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm
   advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may
   still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As
   such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large
   area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. 

   ...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL...
   The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA
   and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating
   expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow,
   strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an
   unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are
   anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE
   and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will
   be possible.

   ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024

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