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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 18, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 18 16:26:49 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240318 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240318 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 181626

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

   Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND MUCH OF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated large hail and wind damage is possible this afternoon
   across central Florida and along much of the Florida Atlantic coast.

   ...Central and eastern Florida Peninsula...
   Morning water-vapor imagery indicates a shortwave trough over the
   middle MS Valley digging southward into the base of a larger-scale
   trough. This evolution will allow a related cold front to continue
   southward across the central/southern FL Peninsula today. While the
   FL Peninsula will generally be displaced from the associated
   midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent, afternoon storm
   development will be aided by ascent along the shallow frontal zone
   and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer amid leftover outflow
   boundaries from morning convection. 

   The development of 40-50-kt effective shear (characterized by a
   long/mostly straight hodograph) will support a mix of organized
   multicells and transient supercells along/ahead of the
   southward-moving front and mesoscale boundaries over the warm
   sector. These storms will be aided by relatively steep midlevel
   lapse rates atop a moist/destabilizing boundary layer. A deep CAPE
   profile (with moderate surface-based buoyancy) and the
   aforementioned hodograph will support large hail up to 1.75 inches
   and locally severe gusts near 60 mph with any sustained/organized
   storms. Additionally, a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out
   along the east coast, where locally backed flow may contribute to
   slightly more low-level hodograph curvature. However, veered
   low-level flow ahead of the front (along with a lack of large-scale
   ascent) and deep westerly flow may both limit the coverage of
   organized storms, and convective residence time in the most
   favorable environment -- warranting the maintenance of the Marginal
   risk.

   ...Arizona and southern California...
   A mid/upper-level low centered over west-central AZ will move slowly
   westward into southern CA today. On the eastern periphery of this
   feature, 25-30-kt midlevel southeasterlies combined with cold
   temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates could favor a couple
   strong/loosely organized storms capable of mainly small hail and
   locally strong gusts. Along the northern and western periphery of
   the upper low, a stronger belt of midlevel flow (around 45 kt)
   accompanying a westward-moving impulse will overspread west-central
   AZ into southern CA this afternoon. Over parts of southern CA
   (particularly west of the Desert), upper 40s/lower 50s dewpoints
   beneath the steep lapse rates will contribute to more substantial
   buoyancy amid 30-40 kt of effective shear. While convective
   evolution/sustenance is uncertain given offshore/downslope flow
   across this area, there is a conditional risk of near-severe hail
   and gusty winds if any longer-lived storms develop. Overall,
   confidence in this scenario is too low to add unconditional
   5-percent hail/wind probabilities with this outlook.

   ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/18/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: March 18, 2024
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