SPC AC 050050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024

   Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the
   southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this
   evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong
   tornado remains possible.

   ...01z Update...

   Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream
   short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX.
   Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this
   feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is
   forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this
   will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards
   Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this
   region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS
   that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very
   large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most
   robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode
   becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to
   support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the
   next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary
   risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight.

   ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z