(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070848
SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Isolated severe potential on Day 4/Friday should remain confined to
parts of north FL and vicinity along/ahead of a cold front. The
overall environment and limited spatial extent of the threat does
not appear sufficient to justify including a 15% severe area at this
time. Generally low severe potential is anticipated on Day
5/Saturday, although some strong thunderstorms may still occur
across parts of the FL Peninsula where the cold front stalls.
Guidance generally indicates low-level moisture should attempt to
return northward across parts of the southern Plains around Day
6/Sunday and continuing into early next week. But, generally zonal
mid-level flow across this region, with a weak upper low over the
Great Basin/Southwest, suggests that whatever severe potential
ultimately develops across the southern Plains may tend to remain
fairly isolated.
..Gleason.. 05/07/2024
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