SPC AC 101230

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
   FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will
   continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia.
   A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are
   also expected across the Carolinas.

   ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida...
   A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included
   embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue
   east-southeastward this morning, favoring the
   prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the
   Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related
   tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving
   offshore.

   The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but
   some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS
   southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some
   potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across
   southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
   Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized
   convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible,
   with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

   ...Carolinas...
   With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly
   offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a
   corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in
   advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough
   approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development
   along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive
   of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing
   segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and
   damaging wind gusts.

   ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau...
   To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated
   convection may develop this afternoon into early evening,
   particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to
   the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains
   uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few
   severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk.

   ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley...
   Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of
   Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the
   shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability
   will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep
   mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated
   gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z