As the 2021 fantasy baseball draft season inches ever so much closer and people are either beginning or finish, their player rankings, I thought this is the perfect time to talk about some over- and under-valued players for this upcoming season. Players’ evaluation is subject based on the league you play in and the rules/scoring format; however, a bust is a bust just about anywhere. Likewise, finding that under-the-radar guy is like winning $100 on a $1 scratcher. So, with that, let’s jump right in.
- The ADP being used came from Fantrax.com redraft leagues for 2021
- The projected ADP is calculated using standard points format
Overvalued Players
The players listed below, on average, have an average draft pick (ADP) at least 50 spots lower than their 2021 projected value in fantasy. Even though I am calling these players overvalued doesn’t mean I don’t find value. In fact, I do, only not at their current ADP. With that, I’m also a firm believer in reaching to get your guy, especially in competitive leagues where you know the draft strategies and needs of your fellow league-mates; however, there are probably better options available.
- Players with less than 150 AB or 50 IP will not be included in this list since prospects are valued differently in dynasty leagues.
- An ADP of 210, which translates to a free agent round 15 in a standard 14-team league, is the cut-off being used to calculate estimated versus actual ADP difference.
- I’m using an ADP as 210 for my starting point because I’m making a general assumption that all players taken in the first 14 rounds of a Free-Agent draft will probably be rostered in most dynasty leagues as standard keepers.
Player | Team | Position | ADP | Projected | Difference |
Jackie Bradley Jr. | CF | 331 | 485 | -154 | |
Domingo German | NYY | SP | 291 | 388 | -97 |
Nomar Mazara | RF | 461 | 550 | -89 | |
Luis Severino | NYY | SP | 254 | 339 | -85 |
Mike Fiers | SP | 465 | 538 | -73 | |
Yoshi Tsutsugo | TB | 3B,LF | 445 | 513 | -68 |
Jordan Montgomery | NYY | SP | 261 | 324 | -63 |
Trevor Rosenthal | RP | 177 | 232 | -55 | |
Tyler Mahle | CIN | SP | 174 | 224 | -50 |
Tom Murphy | SEA | C | 416 | 465 | -49 |
Undervalued Players
Let me first explain what I consider an undervalued player. The players listed below are taken at least 100 spots higher than their 2021 projected value in fantasy. Some people call these late-round steals; others call them sleepers, yet others refer to them as deep sleepers. However you wish to classify the players listed below, they are all certainly worth a look because if they are still on the board in later rounds of your draft, each one of them is worth taking a flyer on for the season.
- Players with less than 150 AB or 50 IP will not be included in this list since prospects are valued differently in dynasty leagues.
- An ADP of 210, which translates to a free agent round 15 in a standard 14-team league, is the cut-off being used to calculate estimated versus actual ADP difference.
- I’m using an ADP as 210 for my starting point because I’m making a general assumption that all players taken in the first 14 rounds of a Free-Agent draft will probably be rostered in most dynasty leagues as standard keepers.
Player | Team | Position | ADP | Projection | Difference |
Matt Carpenter | STL | 3B | 558 | 368 | 190 |
Chad Green | NYY | SP,RP | 572 | 404 | 168 |
Miles Mikolas | STL | SP | 446 | 283 | 163 |
Edwin Encarnacion | 1B,DH | 522 | 360 | 162 | |
Jake Diekman | OAK | RP | 495 | 341 | 154 |
Rick Porcello | SP | 542 | 389 | 153 | |
Mitch Haniger | SEA | CF,RF | 321 | 229 | 92 |
Kevin Newman | PIT | 2B,SS | 486 | 397 | 89 |
Hunter Renfroe | BOS | LF,RF | 490 | 416 | 74 |
Daniel Vogelbach | MIL | 1B,DH | 557 | 492 | 65 |
Feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @drunkenangelz.