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An empty bar in Cardiff, Wales, earlier this week. Hospitality and transport companies are struggling to cope with regional lockdown measures.
An empty bar in Cardiff, Wales, earlier this week. Hospitality and transport companies are struggling to cope with regional lockdown measures. Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images
An empty bar in Cardiff, Wales, earlier this week. Hospitality and transport companies are struggling to cope with regional lockdown measures. Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Second Covid wave hitting UK economic recovery, data shows

This article is more than 3 years old

IHS Markit index shows growth is at its weakest since the recovery from lockdown began

The economic recovery from the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic began to flatten out this month in the UK and threatened to reverse and trigger a double-dip recession in the eurozone after new restrictions to tackle the second wave squeezed business activity.

As the UK government moved to bolster its business support schemes, a closely watched survey of business activity showed private sector growth in the UK falling back as hospitality and transport companies struggled to cope with regional lockdown measures.

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UK retail and hospitality job cuts on back of Covid-19 crisis

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Marston's - 2,150 jobs
15 October: Marston's  - the brewer which owns nearly 1,400 pubs, restaurants, cocktail bars and hotels across the UK - said it would cut 2,150 jobs due to fresh Covid restrictions. The company has more than 14,000 employees. 

Whitbread - 6,000 jobs
22 September: Whitbread, which owns the Premier Inn, Beefeater and Brewers Fayre chains, said it would cut 6,000 jobs at its hotels and restaurants, almost one in five of its workforce

Pizza Express – 1,100 jobs
7 September: The restaurant chain confirms the closure of 73 restaurants as part of a rescue restructure deal.

Costa Coffee – 1,650 jobs
3 September: The company, which was bought by Coca-Cola two years ago, is cutting up to 1,650 jobs in its cafes, more than one in 10 of its workforce. The assistant store manager role will go across all shops.

Pret a Manger – 2,890 jobs
27 August: The majority of the cuts are focused on the sandwich chain's shop workers, but 90 roles will be lost in its support centre teams. The cuts include the 1,000 job losses announced on 6 July.

Marks & Spencer – 7,000 jobs
18 August: Food, clothing and homewares retailer cuts jobs in central support centre, regional management and stores.

M&Co – 400 jobs
5 August: M&Co, the Renfrewshire-based clothing retailer, formerly known as Mackays, will close 47 of 215 stores.

WH Smith – 1,500 jobs
5 August: The chain, which sells products ranging from sandwiches to stationery, will cut jobs mainly in UK railway stations and airports. 

Dixons Carphone – 800 jobs
4 August: Electronics retailer Dixons Carphone is cutting 800 managers in its stores as it continues to reduce costs.

DW Sports – 1,700 jobs at risk
3 August: DW Sports fell into administration, closing its retail website immediately and risking the closure of its 150 gyms and shops.

Marks & Spencer – 950 jobs
20 July: The high street stalwart cuts management jobs in stores as well as head office roles related to property and store operations.

Ted Baker – 500 jobs
19 July: About 200 roles to go at the fashion retailer’s London headquarters, the Ugly Brown Building, and the remainder at stores.

Azzurri – 1,200 jobs
17 July: The owner of the Ask Italian and Zizzi pizza chains closes 75 restaurants and makes its Pod lunch business delivery only

Burberry – 500 jobs worldwide
15 July: Total includes 150 posts in UK head offices as luxury brand tries to slash costs by £55m after a slump in sales during the pandemic.

Boots – 4,000 jobs
9 July: Boots is cutting 4,000 jobs – or 7% of its workforce – by closing 48 opticians outlets and reducing staff at its head office in Nottingham as well as some management and customer service roles in stores.

John Lewis – 1,300 jobs
9 July: John Lewis announced that it is planning to permanently close eight of its 50 stores, including full department stores in Birmingham and Watford, with the likely loss of 1,300 jobs.

Celtic Manor – 450 jobs
9 July: Bosses at the Celtic Collection in Newport, which staged golf's Ryder Cup in 2010 and the 2014 Nato Conference, said 450 of its 995 workers will lose their jobs.

Pret a Manger – 1,000 jobs
6 July: Pret a Manger is to permanently close 30 branches and could cut at least 1,000 jobs after suffering “significant operating losses” as a result of the Covid-19 lockdown

Casual Dining Group – 1,900 jobs
2 July: The owner of the Bella Italia, Café Rouge and Las Iguanas restaurant chains collapsed into administration, with the immediate loss of 1,900 jobs. The company said multiple offers were on the table for parts of the business but buyers did not want to acquire all the existing sites and 91 of its 250 outlets would remain permanently closed.

Arcadia – 500 jobs
1 July: Arcadia, Sir Philip Green’s troubled fashion group – which owns Topshop, Miss Selfridge, Dorothy Perkins, Burton, Evans and Wallis – said in July 500 head office jobs out of 2,500 would go in the coming weeks.

SSP Group – 5,000 jobs
1 July: The owner of Upper Crust and Caffè Ritazza is to axe 5,000 jobs, about half of its workforce, with cuts at its head office and across its UK operations after the pandemic stalled domestic and international travel.

Harrods – 700 jobs
1 July: The department store group is cutting one in seven of its 4,800 employees because of the “ongoing impacts” of the pandemic.

Harveys – 240 jobs
30 June: Administrators made 240 redundancies at the furniture chain Harveys, with more than 1,300 jobs at risk if a buyer cannot be found.

TM Lewin – 600 jobs
30 June: Shirtmaker TM Lewin closed all 66 of its outlets permanently, with the loss of about 600 jobs.

Monsoon Accessorize – 545 jobs
11 June: The fashion brands were bought out of administration by their founder, Peter Simon, in June, in a deal in which 35 stores closed permanently and 545 jobs were lost.

Mulberry – 470 jobs
8 June: The luxury fashion and accessories brand is to cut 25% of its global workforce and has started a consultation with the 470 staff at risk.

The Restaurant Group – 3,000 jobs
3 June: The owner of dining chains such as Wagamama and Frankie & Benny’s has closed most branches of Chiquito and all 11 of its Food & Fuel pubs, with another 120 restaurants to close permanently. Total job losses could reach 3,000.

Clarks – 900 jobs
21 May: Clarks plans to cut 900 office jobs worldwide as it grapples with the growth of online shoe shopping as well as the pandemic.

Oasis and Warehouse – 1,800 jobs
30 April: The fashion brands were bought out of administration by the restructuring firm Hilco in April, with all of their stores permanently closed and 1,800 jobs lost.

Cath Kidston – 900 jobs
21 April: More than 900 jobs were cut immediately at the retro retail label Cath Kidston after the company said it was permanently closing all 60 of its UK stores.

Debenhams – 4,000 jobs
9 April: At least 4,000 jobs will be lost at Debenhams in its head office and closed stores after its collapse into administration in April, for the second time in a year.

Laura Ashley – 2,700 jobs
17 March: Laura Ashley collapsed into administration, with 2,700 job losses, and said rescue talks had been thwarted by the pandemic.

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The IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite PMI data index fell to 52.9 for October so far, compared with 56.5 at the end of September. A figure above 50 indicates a period of expansion.

IHS Markit said the “flash” survey was based on responses from about 85% of the usual survey replies.

Manufacturing businesses were the most resilient after a bounce-back in trade to countries that have succeeded in suppressing the virus, mainly in Asia. Output continued to increase at a strong pace.

However, the services sector suffered from the rise in UK virus cases and government moves to restrict households from mixing in the north of the country.

Chris Williamson, the chief economist at IHS Markit, which collects the data, said: “The pace of UK economic growth slowed in October to the weakest since the recovery from the national Covid-19 lockdown began.”

He added:“The slower growth of output, the renewed fall in demand and further deterioration in the labour market suggest the economy started the fourth quarter on a weakened footing.”

The consultancy Capital Economics said the decline in growth showed that the broader economy would flatline in the final quarter of the year.

Williamson said companies abroad had been stockpiling British goods ahead of the Brexit deadline at the end of the year. Without this extra buying the slowdown would have been even more pronounced.

Stockpiling also accounted for the strong growth in eurozone manufacturing, though this was again offset by the services industry, which sank more than expected to a PMI of 46.2, from 48.0.

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Almost 90% of economists polled by Reuters this week said there was a high risk the coronavirus resurgence would halt the nascent eurozone economic recovery.

“The eurozone PMI confirms that the second wave of the coronavirus is weighing more and more on the economy. A double-dip in the fourth quarter is becoming more likely at this rate,” said Bert Colijn at ING.

IHS Markit’s Flash eurozone PMI fell to 49.4 from September’s final reading of 50.4.

“The further decline in the eurozone Composite PMI in October adds to the evidence that the second wave of infections, and the new wave of containment measures, is taking a heavy toll on the economy,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics.

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