You’ve seen the headlines: Confirmed COVID-19 cases are up.
But have you seen the other news? Deaths from the virus are down — way down.
On June 27, there were 623 deaths attributed to COVID-19, according to OurWorldInData.com. Two days later, the death toll in the U.S. was 265.
By comparison, 4,928 people died in the U.S. on the peak day, April 16. Deaths have been declining steadily, at least until June 26, when the toll reached 2,437 (the website notes that “some states added probable deaths” on that date). The deaths rose again to 1,270 on Tuesday, but at least one COVID watchdog said there was again a reason for that rise.
“That ‘spike’ yesterday includes more than 600 backdated NYC cases, most from three weeks or more ago. In reality deaths dropped again week over week (about 25%),” Alex Berenson, a former New York Times reporter who has been on the forefront of covering the virus, wrote on Twitter.
Berenson has been all over the death rate. “Amazing charts here showing positive tests (cases), hospitalizations, and deaths in Florida. The link between the three has broken down completely. Positive tests are up 5x since early June but hospital admissions and deaths are no higher than mid-May…,” he wrote June 26 on Twitter.
And he said the same day: “Now, deaths lag, but by weeks – not months. And hospitalizations should lag only by days. Either the virus has truly become less virulent or the people being infected are far less at risk.”
Now, deaths lag, but by weeks – not months. And hospitalizations should lag only by days. Either the virus has truly become less virulent or the people being infected are far less at risk.
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 26, 2020
Now, deaths lag, but by weeks – not months. And hospitalizations should lag only by days. Either the virus has truly become less virulent or the people being infected are far less at risk.
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 26, 2020
As for the rise in confirmed cases and hopsitalizations, Berenson cited information he got from J.B. Neiman, a managing partner and general counsel of a Texas-based health care company that owns 13 free-standing clinics.
“Very different patient (in terms of age) than we’ve seen before June. Most of these patients would not have met criteria that we previously had (and all the health facilities had) for Covid testing. Now with more testing kits we are able to test a broader group of patients,” Nieman said. “… [B]ecause all patients are tested for Covid you have some percentage of patients listed as Covid patients who are non Covid symptomatic and that the hospitalization rate is somewhat driven by hospitals taking their normal patients with other medical issues.”
There are a slew of other stories not getting much ink as the MSM descends into “panic porn.” Like this one: The number of Americans who have contracted COVID-19 is likely 10 times higher than the 2.5 million currently confirmed cases, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said last week.
CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield’s estimate indicates that at least 25 million Americans have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 to date. If he is correct, that means the fatality rate could be 10 times lower than previously thought.
By the numbers as of June 28, via the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering:
2,510,337 confirmed cases
125,539 fatalities
= 5.0% death rate
Using Redfield’s numbers, the equation would look like this:
25,103,370 cases
125,539 fatalities
= 0.5% death rate
According to Redfield’s estimation, the survival rate for COVID-19 would be somewhere around 99.5%.
Confirmed cases of COVID-19 have soared recently amid a massive testing increase in states across the country. But because the virus can be asymptomatic in up to 50% of people, the number of infected is likely far higher, Redfield said.
Meanwhile, another story is getting short shrift, too: herd immunity.
Multiple new studies indicate that we may be moving toward herd immunity more quickly than previous research suggests. While some of the studies use small sample sizes and the findings are not definitive — and while Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warns that even an effective coronavirus vaccine may not be enough to achieve herd immunity — the studies are at least promising.
“The prevalence of immunity to the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 may be much higher than previous research suggests according to an intriguing new study by researchers associated with Karolinska Institute in Sweden,” Reason magazine reported. “In addition, a new German study by researchers associated with the University Hospital Tübingen in Germany reports that people who have been previously infected with versions of the coronavirus that cause the common cold also have some immunity to the COVID-19 virus. If these reports stand up to further scrutiny, it would be very good news because they suggest that the pandemic could be over sooner and ultimately be less lethal than feared.”
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