Houston, We Have A (Convention) Problem . . . In Milwaukee

Contrary to appearances (and a lack of candidates appearing on television these days), the 2020 campaign didn’t shelter in place, though time will tell if and when presidential politics returns to full throttle.

One question to ponder when things get closer to normal: are the National Basketball Association and the Democratic Party on a collision course?

Let’s begin with assumption that, as we move into the summer months, the NBA resumes its season rather than canceling it altogether. Maybe the league cuts straight to the playoffs to determine a champion (most teams have less than 20 games remaining on the regular-season schedule).

If so, when does that begin?

At present, the first of the NBA’s four playoff rounds is scheduled to begin on April 18. That won’t happen due to obvious health concerns. The best-of-seven NBA Finals supposedly would commence on June 4 and end no later than June 21.

But what happens if the NBA decides to start its postseason a few weeks later than originally conceived?

If so, then Houston (and at least one other playoff city): we have a problem.

And that would be the Milwaukee Bucks, the holder of the league’s best record and a favorite to advance all the way to the finals. Move back the playoffs a month or six weeks and that presents a potential scheduling conflict at Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum, which is committed to the Democratic National Convention from July 13-16. 

So how to get around this potential double-booking? The NBA and the Democrats could put it to a vote of the good people of Milwaukee. Hillary Clinton carried Milwaukee County by more than a 2-1 margin over Donald Trump in 2016. Joe Biden might find himself on the opposite side of that ratio if the choice were him or Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks’ All-Star and current league most valuable player.

Then again, the convention could become a pandemic casualty. 

Last week, Wisconsin health officials recommended cancelling all large events in their state (gatherings of more than 250 people) scheduled through April. They also indicated that a decision on whether that guidance applies to the Democratic National Convention will come later this spring.

Meanwhile, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez has said that his party’s convention will go on as planned – and didn’t seem all that interested in an online convention as a more safety-minded alternative.

(By the way, NBA double-booking isn’t an immediate concern for Republicans as their national convention is slated for August 24-27 at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center. That arena is also home to the NBA’s Charlotte Hornets, not a playoff team if the league started the postseason based on present regular-season records.)

Tempting as it is to dismiss the Democrats’ potential Milwaukee headache as yet another pandemic-prompted inconvenience, there’s another culprit here: both parties’ tendency to overthink the geopolitics of their national conventions.

Back in 1988, the Democrats had a vision: holding their convention in Atlanta as a symbol of the party’s intent to win back southern states that had drifted away since the rise of Reaganism. That convention went off without a hitch. But come November, Michael Dukakis lost Georgia by 20 points and won only one state (West Virginia) south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

Republicans employed the same logic in the 1996 presidential election, staging its convention in San Diego as a gateway to winning back California. Bill Clinton ended up winning America’s most populous state by nearly 13 points in his re-elect effort (nearly identical to Clinton’s 13.4% California win in 1992’s three-man race).

In 2012, both parties miscalculated. Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats partied in Charlotte; North Carolina was one of only two states (Indiana being the other) than changed from blue to red. Mitt Romney and Republicans gathered in Tampa; Obama again carried the Sunshine State (though it was by less than 1%).

As for 2016, the conventions yielded mixed results. Donald Trump and Republicans convened in Cleveland; Ohio returned to the GOP column. Hillary Clinton and Democrats whooped it up in Philadelphia; Pennsylvania ended up going red for the first time since the aforementioned 1998 vote.

The 2020 election continues this trend. Democrats are in Milwaukee to send the message that winning back Wisconsin is a priority. Charlotte is a southern swing state Trump can’t afford to lose.

But does it matter where the parties choose to party?

A review of the last eight presidential votes doesn’t such a discernible pattern concerning convention sites and election outcomes. Five times, since 1988, Democrats carried states that hosted their national convention. However, they won only three of those elections (1992, 1996 and 2008). On only three occasions (1988, 1992, 2016) did Republicans manage to win their convention states. The GOP also went 0-5 from 1996-2012. However, George W. Bush twice was elected despite losing his convention states (Pennsylvania, in 2000, and New York in 2004 — also the same two years that Democrats carried their convention state but lost the national election).

How vital are the convention states in 2020? Set the map as it appeared in 2016, but take away Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes, and Trump is still in good shape for re-election — that’s provided he clings to Michigan and/or Pennsylvania. But take away North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes and Trump’s likely in big trouble (his inability to carry a state that’s voted Democratic only twice in the last 11 presidential elections would suggest trouble in the Upper Midwest, historically far friendlier to Democrats over the same stretch).

Here’s a suggestion for the two parties: stop obsessing over location and instead hold the convention in a city more in stride and spirit with the party’s ideological bent.

For blue coastal Democrats, go with Los Angeles or New York City (no worries about the dreadful New York Knicks adding a playoff wrinkle to convention bookings). And I’d stash the GOP in New Orleans, hurricane risks and all (few cities are better designed for a large-scale event like a political convention, what with the easy walk from hotels to the SuperDome and an abundance of street-side cocktail vendors).

This won’t solve the issue of coronavirus (in fact, Democrats probably wouldn’t relish the thought of a 2020 convention that would showcase a struggling New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio), but it would add a little continuity – and common sense – to the exercise of choosing party nominees.

And these days, continuity seems pretty attractive.

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