Regional level influenza study based on Twitter and machine learning method

PLoS One. 2019 Apr 23;14(4):e0215600. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215600. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

The significance of flu prediction is that the appropriate preventive and control measures can be taken by relevant departments after assessing predicted data; thus, morbidity and mortality can be reduced. In this paper, three flu prediction models, based on twitter and US Centers for Disease Control's (CDC's) Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) data, are proposed (models 1-3) to verify the factors that affect the spread of the flu. In this work, an Improved Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of Support Vector Regression (IPSO-SVR) was proposed. The IPSO-SVR was trained by the independent and dependent variables of the three models (models 1-3) as input and output. The trained IPSO-SVR method was used to predict the regional unweighted percentage ILI (%ILI) events in the US. The prediction results of each model are analyzed and compared. The results show that the IPSO-SVR method (model 3) demonstrates excellent performance in real-time prediction of ILIs, and further highlights the benefits of using real-time twitter data, thus providing an effective means for the prevention and control of flu.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. / statistics & numerical data
  • Data Analysis
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Forecasting / methods
  • Humans
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Influenza, Human / prevention & control
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Social Media / statistics & numerical data*
  • Support Vector Machine*
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Vaccination

Grants and funding

Research Project Supported by National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61774137) and Shanxi Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 201701D121012, 201801D121026 and 201701D221121) and Shanxi Scholarship Council of China (Grant No.2016-088) and North University of China Postgraduate Scientific and Technological Innovation Project (Grant No.20181549). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.