We are six weeks away from tip-off of the 11th annual GEICO Nationals at Christ the King High School in New York City, and the field is clearing each day as basketball academies wrap up their regular seasons and others continue their quest for a coveted state title.
Since we predicted the field last month, one bubble team jumps into the current projected field. However, the team projected to drop out may come as a shock as storied Oak Hill Academy (Mouth of Wilson, Va.) appears to be on the outside looking in for the first time in program history. (The Warriors declined an invite in 2012).
The team replacing the Warriors, Wasatch Academy (Mt. Pleasant, Utah), had a strong month of basketball since our last projections. The Tigers took down No. 15 Sunrise Christian Academy (Bel Aire, Kan.) 65-53 in a dominant outing one week after taking then-No. 1 La Lumiere (LaPorte, Ind.) to the brink in a 53-52 heartbreaker.
Plenty of basketball remains and shake-ups are possible in the lead up to the 2019 GEICO Nationals field announcement. With only four teams appeared to be locked in to the tournament field, a handful of squads have an opportunity to play their way in.
Read on for a breakdown of each of the projected teams for this year's field, along with the bubble teams remain alive.
Predicting the Current Field
Record: 28-0
National Rank: No. 1
Projected Seed: No. 1
Breakdown: This group began its national competition domination at the City of Palms Classic where the Indians captured the prestigious event title — biggest win of the year — 50-29 over No. 6 Mountain Brook (Birmingham, Ala.). McEachern also won the Bass Pro Tournament of Champions, defeating projected GEICO 5-seed Shadow Mountain and projected 7-seed Sunrise Christian Academy en route to the title. This week, the Indians continue their quest for their first state title against Cherokee in the second round of the GHSA Class 7A state tournament. The Indians opened the state tournament with an 89-54 blowout of East Coweta (Sharpsburg).
Record: 28-0
National Rank: No. 2
Projected Seed: No. 2
Breakdown: The Lakers are a GEICO Nationals mainstay, expecting an invitation to their fourth consecutive tournament and seventh in the last eight seasons. La Lumiere has a strong chance to capture its second event title after winning in 2017. At No. 2 in the rankings, a GEICO win would secure a national title for the Indiana powerhouse. The Lakers have beaten Top 25 opponents No. 3 Montverde Academy (twice), No. 9 DeMatha and No. 15 Sunrise Christian Academy.
Record: 21-2
National Rank: No. 3
Projected Seed: No. 3
Breakdown: The Eagles possess the most wins over current Top 25 opponents, boasting a 7-2 record against currently ranked teams. Coming off their record-setting fourth event title last year, look for the defending GEICO Nationals Champions to be strong candidates to capture back-to-back titles. Montverde may feature the deepest rotation in high school basketball as their chemistry is at an all-time high entering this event. The perennial powerhouse ended the season by facing four ranked opponents in its final five contests, outscoring Top 25 foes by 26.8 points per game.
Record: 28-1
National Rank: No. 4
Projected Seed: No. 4
Breakdown: The Ascenders have established themselves as one of the game's top programs, finishing the regular season with just one loss in two of the last three years. The Sunshine State powerhouse are now locks to return to their second GEICO Nationals appearance in program history after wrapping up regular season play. IMG boasts quality wins over No. 9 DeMatha, No. 16 University, No. 22 Oak Hill Academy, Desoto (Texas), Huntington St. Joseph (Huntington, W. Va.), Olive Branch (Miss.) and Wilson (Washington, D.C.). With a record-setting three McDonald's All-Americans on the roster, this group has a real shot at capturing their first event title.
On the bubble
Shadow Mountain (Phoenix)Record: 24-3
National Rank: No. 13
Projected Seed: No. 5
Breakdown: A fourth consecutive state title certainly would strengthen the Matadors case for their third straight GEICO Nationals berth. It won't, however, make this team a lock for an invitation. Shadow Mountain has quality wins over Belleville West (Belleville, Ill.), Deer Valley (Glendale, Ariz.), Foothills Christian (El Cajon, Calif.), Paul VI (Fairfax, Va.) and St. Augustine (San Diego, Calif.) this year. While losses to No. 1 McEachern by 12 and Pinnacle (Phoenix) by 2 don't hurt the Matadors national standing tremendously, a 74-53 loss to Memphis East (Memphis, Tenn.) could knock them from this year's field. The blowout loss raises questions about this group's ability to compete against high-level big men, keeping them on the bubble.
Wasatch Academy (Mt. Pleasant, Utah)
Record: 26-3
National Rank: No. 14
Projected Seed: No. 6
Breakdown: After missing the cut last season, Wasatch Academy has appeared to play themselves back into the field. While the Tigers have played just two Top 25 opponents this season, a signature victory over No. 15 Sunrise Christian Academy gives them a slight edge over other strong candidates for the field. If this group doesn't make this year's field it will likely be because of a relatively weak national schedule, combined with back-to-back losses at the Montverde Academy Invitational that included a 74-47 beat down by No. 12 Rancho Christian (Temecula, Calif.).
Record: 19-5
National Rank: No. 15
Projected Seed: No. 7
Breakdown: The Buffaloes had a GEICO Nationals bid all but wrapped up last year before being ruled ineligible due to a fifth-year player on their roster. This year, they are right on the bubble. Although Sunrise Christian Academy has the most losses of any team projected to appear in this year's field, they also have played one of the toughest schedules. Sunrise owns quality wins over No. 16 University, No. 20 Guyer (Denton, Texas), No. 21 Imhotep Charter (Philadelphia), Findlay Prep, Memphis East, Rainier Beach (Seattle) and South Garland (Garland Texas). However, at the end of the day Sunrise Christian has just a 1-4 record against the current projected field, putting them in a precarious spot.
Record: 22-4
National Rank: No. 16
Projected Seed: No. 8
Breakdown: The Sharks are currently projected as the final seed, but a state championship run would likely clinch a berth in the field because of one major advantage this group has over any other team on the bubble. University's title game run behind the dominant play of
Vernon Carey Jr. and
Scottie Barnes in last year's tournament gives this group an added boost. That being said, University still doesn't possess an overwhelmingly strong resume this season with an 0-2 record against the current projected field — including an 88-51 loss to IMG Academy at the City of Palms Classic. However, out of state wins against Central Catholic (Portland, Ore.), Gonzaga Prep (Spokane, Wash.) and Vashon (St. Louis) also bolster the Sharks' case.
Needing help
Record: 23-2
National Rank: No. 18
Breakdown: Will capturing the WIAA Class 4A state title be enough to make this group the third team to participate in the event from the Evergreen State?
Record: 24-4
National Rank: No. 22
Breakdown: The Warriors are in serious danger of missing GEICO Nationals for the first time since they declined the invite in on the heels of their 2012 trip to China.
Record: 24-4
National Rank: Next 5
Breakdown: An eighth consecutive state title would bolster the Gaels' resume, but as it currently stands they appear to be a year away with their talented young core.
Record: 21-2
National Rank: Not Ranked
Breakdown: After Lone Peak (Highland, Utah) received a surprise invite last season from UHSAA Class 6A, a state title for Pleasant Grove in the same classification may produce the same results.
Record: 25-3
National Rank: Not Ranked
Breakdown: A head-to-head win against Shadow Mountain would have to go a long way for this team to receive an invite to the field, nonetheless
Nico Mannion would make things exciting.
Josh Green, IMG Academy
Photo by Andy Mitchell
