Election Day: Blue wave? Red wave? Turnout? Finally, voters have their say
WASHINGTON – After withstanding months of divisive politicking aimed at winning hearts and minds, the American electorate was making its own voice heard Tuesday in historic midterm elections serving as a mandate on President Donald Trump.
Blue wave or red sea, the political fate of the nation was at stake as Democrats and Republicans grappled for control of the House and Senate, 36 governorships and thousands of state legislative seats.
In St. Clair, Michigan, Amanda Weidenbach was all-in after casting her ballot.
"I can't have a conversation with anybody without it being a major event," she said. "Emotions are so high."
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide
In the Senate, Republicans hold a razor-thin, 51-49 majority. Democrats' chances to flip control there are slim, however, because only nine of the 35 seats on the ballot were in Republican hands. In the House, Democrats will need to pick up 23 seats to gain a majority. History and the polls are on their side.
Here are the things to watch as the electorate determines whether a Democratic "blue wave" sweeps the nation or liberals will instead will be seeing red when the final votes are tallied.
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More:Election Day is here. Here's what you need to know before you cast your midterm ballot.
The House
For all midterm elections since the end of World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 25 seats in the House, according to Gallup. That number jumps to 37 seats for presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent. In most recent job-approval polling, Gallup puts President Donald Trump at 40 percent approval, CNN at 41 percent and Rasmussen right at 50 percent.
Rachel Bitecofer, with the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, sees the Democrats claiming a whopping net gain of 45 seats. She said that other number-crunching experts have slowly come closer to her estimate.
"At this point, if I am wrong, I will be in very good company," Bitecofer said.
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Senate seats
For Republicans to lose control of the Senate, Democrats would have to defend all 26 of their seats that are up for grabs and steal two from the GOP (or some scenario that nets them at least two seats). The pollsters at FiveThirtyEight only put the odds of the Democrats pulling that off at 19.5 percent.
There are three races in the East where Democrats are in tough re-election fights: Florida, Indiana and West Virginia. If they lose even one of those, it could kill their chances. If they drop two or more, Senate Republicans can go ahead and open the champagne.
"Democrats would need a near-perfect night to win the Senate," FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley said.
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Voter turnout
Foul weather threatened to impact turnout across much of the East, but politicos and pundits urged voters not to be dissuaded by the storms. The party that gets the most of its voters to the voting booth will be the one that wins the close races and congressional control.
"It’s raining here and lots of places. So what?" tweeted Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "You won’t melt unless you’re the Wicked Witch of the West. Go Vote!!"
Polls have indicated that voters on both sides are a lot more fired up for this election than most midterms, when turnout is typically much lower than years when the president is on the ballot. A poll Sunday from ABC News and The Washington Post found that 80 percent of registered voters are "certain to vote" or have already voted, compared with 65 percent in 2014 and 71 percent in 2010.
More:What's at stake? Both sides warn the future of our democracy is at risk
Female voters
A key for Democrats will be the turnout of various demographic groups and one of the biggest will be female voters.
From his defeat of the first female major party nominee for president to his own alleged sexual misconduct, Trump has outraged many women with his language, behavior and policies. The majority of them have consistently voted Democrat in recent elections. If they vote in large numbers Tuesday, that could be enough to flip control of the House.
Bonnie Slade, a 45-year-old black woman living in Potomac, Maryland, said Trump was part of what motivated her to vote Tuesday. “He doesn’t stand for anything that I believe in, period,” Slade said. “I’m a minority. I’m a woman. And he’s just not the best choice for me, personally, or my family.”
Midterm elections 2018:Women candidates could make history at all levels
Young voters
Another group Democrats are counting on that could determine the election outcome is America's youth.
A poll last month from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics found that just 26 percent of voters age 18-29 approve of the job Trump has done as president. Fifty-five percent said they would like to see a Democratic majority in Congress (and that number jumps to 66 percent of likely voters in that age range).
Millennial and Generation X voters now outnumber their more senior cohorts, according to the Pew Research Center. But they aren't the most reliable voters. In the 2014 midterms, voters from the younger generations made up 53 percent of eligible voters but cast 21 million fewer votes than members of the older ones.
"I just feel like it's important, especially with people my age, to get the votes out there," said Amanda McLeod, 20, after voting in St. Clair.
More:Young voter turnout in midterms is often dismal. This could be different
African-American voters
There were many factors that led to Trump's victory over Clinton, but a decline in African-American turnout was a big one. After voting in higher than normal numbers in races where Obama was on the ballot, those numbers receded in 2016.
Some polls have indicated that Trump has made gains among black voters, but even the rosiest projections for the president would still mean massive opposition from African-Americans.
Trump has been accused of racism by his critics and of sending "dog whistles" of solidarity to white supremacists. If those dog whistles backfire and draw African-American voters to the polls, they could carry a number of Democrats in close races –such as Stacey Abrams in Georgia's gubernatorial race – to victory.
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Latino voters
Trump has made immigration a centerpiece of the election. A caravan of thousands of Latinos walking through Mexico bound for the U.S. has drawn his ire, and he has sent troops to the border to keep the would-be immigrants out.
“This whole thing with this caravan is pretty scary,” said Jennifer Rager, 55, of Bozeman, Montana, after casting her vote. “It just feels like he’s really trying to do a good job of protecting our country, you know?"
Latinos, however, are more energized than in past midterm elections. According to Pew, 55 percent of registered Latinos are enthusiastic about voting in this election, compared with 37 percent in the 2014 midterm. And 63 percent said in a September survey that they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress.
More:Donald Trump launches campaign tour by pounding immigration debate
The Trump factor
Although Trump isn't on the ballot, the election is viewed as a referendum on his first two years as president. His inflammatory political style is a large part of why turnout is expected to be extremely high. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 72 percent of voters plan to vote to send a signal of opposition (40 percent) or support (32 percent) to the president.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's re-election bid has been more focused on Trump's policies than on those of GOP candidate Marc Molinaro.
"This election is not about my opponent," Cuomo said at a rally Monday. "They are only soldiers in the army. This election is about the general of their army because they are just carrying orders for their general and their general is Donald Trump."
More:Donald Trump says 'everything' is at stake in closing election argument
USA TODAY/Suffolk poll:There is a 'Kavanaugh effect'
The Kavanaugh effect
Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's contentious confirmation process is being hailed by both sides as an important factor in the election.
After Kavanaugh was confirmed despite the allegations of sexual misconduct that nearly derailed him, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the Democrats' tactics against him had the Republican base "fired up." Conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt predicted on "Meet the Press" that "on Wednesday, everyone's going to be talking about Brett Kavanaugh."
But many Democrats believe that amid the #MeToo movement, women were outraged and further energized by Kavanaugh's confirmation.
An Oct. 24 USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found that 35 percent of respondents said Kavanaugh's confirmation made them more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, while 27 percent said it made them more likely to vote for a Republican.
Contributing: Bob Gross and Joseph Spector, USA TODAY NETWORK; The Associated Press
