Stay sexy, Nate.
Posted on 10/17/2018 11:02:45 AM PDT by SMGFan
If you’ve been following our Senate model for a while now — you should, everyone’s doing it — then you may have noticed a trend of late: Democrats’ chances of winning the chamber have been diminishing. (We’ve written about it a bit.) Races in red states such as Texas and Tennessee seem to be pulling away from Democrats, perhaps in predictable partisan form. But Democrats have problems elsewhere too: The races in Arizona and Nevada — a couple of contests that were once supposed to be easier seat pickups for Democrats — have tightened. In both states, Democrats had been hoping demographics and candidates well-suited to their political environments would help them edge up the party’s Senate margins. But things aren’t going entirely to plan.
First let’s look at Arizona. Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is running against Republican Rep. Martha McSally to fill Republican Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat. The classic version of FiveThirtyEight’s model currently gives Sinema a 3 in 5 chance of winning the seat. So, the Democrat is still favored, but polls from September routinely showed her up on McSally by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points. October polls have shown her lead dwindling. A new Siena College/New York Times survey conducted on Monday and Tuesday showed McSally leading by 3.8 points, while Democratic pollster Change Research showed the race essentially tied in a poll done Oct. 9-10.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
I resist cheering positive polls when I dismiss negative polls.
Good.
Voted early today in East TN on first day of early voting.
Line was long. A lot of voters out.
Voted straight GOP ticket
including dog catcher(just joking about dog catcher)
Go GOP Candidates across the country!
Arizona is going from R to R. We need to flip seats like Nevada, MO, FL, PA, ND etc.
538’s predictions should come on a roll with perforations every 4 inches...
Have people learned nothing from 2016?
Like clockwork, wonder boy Nate and Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato gradually start inching closer to reality.
The current trends are looking good. The reasons:
Public Polls from now on must get it right for the purposes of their future business. They have switched to propaganda mode into a valid prediction.
Voters have moved toward GOP candidates, The undecided are breaking to the GOP. Very few races are breaking to the Dems.
The Kavanaugh effect is real.
the Generic poll and enthusiasm sentiment are essentially even (A bad omen for the Dems, who need a +6 generic because of the concentration of Dem voters.)
Kavanaugh fiasco made it assured that other than perhaps Manchin, not a single red state D senator will survive... and a few others will fall as well...
Polls ain’t news.....
Frère Jacques, Frère Jacques,
Dormez-vous? Dormez-vous?
Sonnez les matines, sonnez les matines
Ding ding dong, ding ding dong.
The same mistaken pollsters just keep singing the same song over and over, hoping to lull the senses enough to get the voters to fall asleep BEFORE the vote is in.
Senator Dean Heller, Nevada is a Republican.
NV is not a flip
When will the MSM have the FIRST story about the Mob flipping a Republican senate seat to the MOB? All I read is blue going red. If so, how can the Mob win 40 seats in the house? Doesn’t add up.
Stay sexy, Nate.
Thanks, you get my drift.
Got it, you get my point.
True, in a few weeks we will see the results.
Once again, meaningless without telling us is this a GOP area or not!
If that piece of feces Sinema is a Democrat “Moderate”, it demonstrates the degree to which that party has totally slipped leftwards.
The fact that these races are so close, is, in itself, depressing
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