Video: Marvin Bagley III high school highlightsTop draft prospect starred at Sierra Canyon in Southern California.
Popularized by Bill Simmons, the Ewing Theory is an attempt to explain the phenomenon of teams getting better after a star player departs or is out with an injury.
For all of his talent, there is a bit of a Ewing Theory theme to the early stages in the career of
Marvin Bagley III.
During his final high school season at
Sierra Canyon (Chatsworth, Calif.) in 2016-17, he led a team that featured four other Division I-bound seniors to a No. 1 national ranking – only to suffer an inexplicable early exit from the state playoffs.
Sierra Canyon went on to win a state championship in its first season without him in March.
At Duke, he jumped to the top of many draft boards with strong performances on a loaded team that began the season 11-0. The Blue Devils went 8-5 over their next 13 games – including a puzzling loss to St. John's – prior to Bagley missing four games due to injury.
During that four-game span, Duke went 4-0 while winning by an average margin of 17 points per game.
It's too early and unfair to put Bagley's name in the Ewing Theory realm. But turning his talent and production into trophies is the next step for him.
Read on for a closer look at what Bagley's high school career might tell us about his NBA future.
Prospect Report Card – Marvin Bagley III 27-3 during 2016-17 season at Sierra Canyon, 33-1 during 2014-15 season at
Corona del Sol (Tempe, Ariz.).
Stats/Accomplishments: Bagley won a state title at Corona del Sol and was named MaxPreps National Freshman of the Year in 2014-15. He was highly-productive in his lone season at Sierra Canyon, averaging 24.6 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. The starting lineup on that team also included Remy Martin (now at Arizona State), Terrance McBride (Cornell), Cody Riley (UCLA) and Adam Seiko (San Diego State).
Outstanding Achievement: For all of the disappointment surrounding Bagley's season at Sierra Canyon, he led the Trailblazers to an impressive string of wins during the regular season. The Trailblazers beat
Oak Hill Academy (Mouth of Wilson, Va.) on ESPN in December,
Findlay Prep (Henderson, Nev.) and
Memphis East (Memphis, Tenn.) at the Bass Pro Shops Tournament of Champions, then handed eventual national champion
La Lumiere (LaPorte, Ind.) its only loss at the Spalding Hoophall Classic.
Needs Work: For all his length and athleticism, the 6-foot-10 Bagley blocked just 29 shots all season at Duke and wasn't a whole lot better in that department in high school.
Best Fit: Sacramento at No. 2 or Atlanta with the No. 3 pick seems to be the consensus of where Bagley
will go, but Memphis at No. 4 might be a more ideal destination from a development standpoint. With Mike Conley Jr., Marc Gasol and potentially Tyreke Evans on the roster, he could play a supporting role on a playoff-contending team and avoid being thrust into the spotlight as the franchise savior in Sacramento or Atlanta.
