NBA Playoff Teams Headed for 2018 Draft Lottery

Change is a constant within the NBA's playoff picture.

It happens every year. Teams that previously earned a postseason bid fail to return the next time around. Sometimes, one-hit wonders fall out of contention for a spot they barely earned in the first place. Other squads hit the eject button on purpose, extracting themselves from the middle of the pack to jump-start a thorough rebuild.

A select few are just plain unlucky. They lose key players over the offseason or, more painfully, fall victim to a ballooning field of playoff hopefuls with which they cannot hope to hang.

Pinpointing these lottery-bound squads is not especially difficult entering the 2017-18 crusade. Some have voluntarily paved a clear path to the bottom, and the Western Conference's exhaustively expansive postseason picture makes it a little easier to identify clear-cut outliers.

Plenty can happen between now and the middle of next April. Additional candidates could play their way onto this list, while present-day inclusions might escape it. This particular look is based exclusively on what we know now. Potential trades and signings are not taken into account, nor are unpredictable rises.

Instead, these selections reflect which teams will most definitely vacate the Association's playoff bracket, either by their own hand or the efforts from those around them. 

Missing the playoffs is never a pleasant experience—unless you're bowing out of the race months in advance on purpose.

Oh, hey, Atlanta Hawks.

"We have young guys," general manager Travis Schlenk told the Atlanta Journal Constitution's Chris Vivlamore in July. "We have probably five more first-round picks over the next two years to add to this group. We are investing in our future. The young guys we have, we want to keep developing them. We want to keep our flexibility, collect assets, build the guys we have. Investing in the future."

Liberally translated: We're rebuilding, and probably tanking, but words with negative connotations are bad for business.

The Hawks, to their credit, are not totally bombing next season. They have players who will try hard and make a difference. 

Dennis Schroder is electric, and Kent Bazemore will remain a defensive asset even if his offensive efficiency continues to plummet amid a dearth of secondary shot creators. Both DeAndre' Bembry and Taurean Prince flash the complementary two-way hustle of a raw Jae Crowder. Mike Muscala is a legitimate floor-spacing, stationary rim-protecting 5. Dewayne Dedmon is basically a tamped-down Dwight Howard—only he defends better in space and doesn't need oodles of post-ups to placate his offensive ego.

Picture last season's league-worst Brooklyn Nets, but with more talent. These Hawks should work just as tirelessly and will be moderately entertaining whenever they deploy wing-heavy lineups that play fast and furious while switching basically everything on defense.

This group might even surprise some people. Get peak performances from Bazemore, Dedmon and Schroder with a jump from Bembry or Prince, and the Hawks will have the juice to leave teams like the Nets, Orlando Magic and New York Knicks in the dust. 

But steering into a rebuild, or reset, or reinvention, or whatever else Schlenk wants to call it, torpedoes their postseason chances—deliberately and effectively, regardless of how the Eastern Conference's wide-ranging middle class shakes out.

Maybe the Chicago Bulls are the reason the Boston Celtics, as of now, sent Brooklyn's unprotected 2018 first-round pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers as part of the Kyrie Irving trade.

After all, general manager Gar Forman and vice president of basketball operations John Paxson did a bang-up job ensuring the Nets won't have the league's worst record next season. And if you're the Celtics, offloading that selection is a lot easier when you're convinced it won't once again have the highest odds of landing at No. 1 overall. (Though, as an aside, including both the draft choice and Jae Crowder in the deal remains an iffy decision.)

Now, according to ESPN.com's summer forecasts, the Bulls are projected to co-opt the NBA's worst win column with the Nets. But slotting them below the plucky Brooklynites doesn't take much imagination.

Just a quick review of the Dwyane Wade situation.

Nick Friedell deemed a buyout between the 35-year-old and the Bulls "inevitable" while making an appearance on ESPN's The Jump. Pull him from the roster, and Chicago's most established player becomes the 29-year-old Robin Lopez. Move him during the season (admittedly unlikely), and Justin Holiday, 28, transitions into the old-head role.

We're getting ahead of the game, but only because the chances of Wade finishing the season in the Windy City are approximately zero. And even if, by some weird twist of fate, he stays put through the entire schedule, it won't do much to boost the Bulls' trajectory.

Staving off worst-record status is predicated on Wade remaining healthy and playing a bunch of minutes, and then having that time on the court mean something. Chicago posted better offensive and defensive ratings without him last season. He's not about to ferry a less experienced squad toward competence—let alone one steeped in so many contrived imperfections.

Holiday and Paul Zipser will battle it out to be the team's best wing. That'll be fun. The Bulls have to make sense of a backcourt rotation that, in addition to Wade, includes Kris Dunn, Jerian Grant, Zach LaVine and Cameron Payne. Holiday and Denzel Valentine will factor into the equation as well if they cannot survive full-time minutes at the 3. And as of now, the offense touts zero frontcourt spacing aside from newbie Lauri Markkanen, who shot a not-so-blistering 24 percent from beyond the arc during summer-league play.

To simplify this further: The Bulls barely scraped their way into the playoffs last year, and now they're worse. They'll be contending for the right to be Michael Porter Jr.'s first NBA stop, not a footnote in the East's postseason discussion.

Myles Turner refuses to let his optimism be stamped out by reality.

“I feel like we’re definitely going to be overlooked this year," he said of his Indiana Pacers, per the Indianapolis Star's Matthew VanTryon. "A lot of people look at us as young team that’s going to rebuild, but we’re a young team that’s trying to compete. We’ve got a lot of guys who can come in and make an impact right away. I expect to make the playoffs this year.”

Anything can happen in the Eastern Conference, and the Pacers clearly founded their post-Paul George era around the belief they will not bottom out. They took on Victor Oladipo's four-year, $84 million deal as compensation for their franchise star, a distinct sign they targeted impact players under contract for the long haul.

Signing Bojan Bogdanovic and Darren Collison advanced that agenda. So, too, did the trade for Cory Joseph. Holding onto Thaddeus Young, rather than dealing him, also aligns with those aims.

Still, parlaying Turner and this collection of unspectacular players into a postseason cameo is an implausible directive—even in the Eastern Conference.

Fixed free falls from the Bulls and Hawks offer the Pacers a slight cushion among incumbent playoff hopefuls. But the Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat and almost-fully-processed Philadelphia 76ers will all be vying for a spot in the spring dance.

Charlotte and Miami feel like the shoo-ins of this gaggle. The Hornets added Dwight Howard, drafted another playmaker in Malik Monk and cannot feasibly get a less impressive campaign from Nicolas Batum. The Heat spent way too much money to preserve the nucleus of a lottery team; James Johnson and Dion Waiters will earn $112 million over the next four years, while Kelly Olynyk is collecting another $50 million. Immediately, though, head coach/tactical genius Erik Spoelstra will have no trouble leveraging the core that finished last year 30-11 into a playoff unit.

That, in theory, leaves one spot for Detroit, Indiana and Philly. Those odds aren't good for the Pacers. According to NBA Math's total points added, they lost two of their three most valuable players in George and Jeff Teague while bringing on five players—Bogdanovic, Collison, Joseph, Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis—who closed 2016-17 as demonstrative minuses.

Whatever proximity the Pacers have to a top-eight record figures to be superficial. They're not built to surprise anyone.

Consigning the Memphis Grizzlies to lottery duty smites the soul. They've secured playoff appearances through each of the past seven years, often overthrowing perception of an impending downfall. 

Perhaps they do that again this year. Having two stars, in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, most definitely helps. But what do they have after them? Not a whole lot, as SI.com's Michael Shapiro unpacked:

"The problems for the Grizz start once you look past those two stars. This isn’t the Memphis of old. Franchise mainstays Zach Randolph and Tony Allen are no longer with the team (although Allen remains unsigned and could possibly return) and Vince Carter joined Randolph in Sacramento during free agency. In their place stands a collection of unpolished talents and mid-level contracts, and it’s unclear whether Memphis has any replacements that can turn into reliable options."

Losing Randolph could end up being addition by subtraction. He verged on a two-way liability while coming off the bench for most of last year. Purging his minutes from the rotation allows Memphis to experiment more freely with five-out lineups that feature the sweet-shooting Gasol in the middle.

Carter, however, was the Grizzlies' best wing in 2016-17. And although the defense has officially transcended Allen's presence, his ability to guard two positions will be missed (if he doesn't re-sign).

Counting on a Chandler Parsons, meanwhile, inspires little hope. He's now suffered three consecutive season-ending knee injuries and might indefinitely lack the mobility to survive at small forward. Tyreke Evans, Ben McLemore (injured) and Rade Zagorac must combine to replace the blend of athleticism, shooting and defensive elbow grease Memphis had/thought it was getting from the Allen-Carter-Parsons trio.

Conley and Gasol were close to a plus-minus wash when playing without those three and Randolph, which is a fine-not-great place to start. But that sample spanned only 100 minutes, about 75 percent of which came with JaMychal Green—who, by the way, also remains unsigned.

The Grizzlies' performance actually improved without Green in these situations. That clears up...absolutely nothing. At best, it leaves the team more reliant upon the bundle of new additions. At worst, Memphis' lone remaining means of improvement (Green's return) threatens to move the needle in the opposite direction.

Uncertainty is a killer in the West, and the Portland Trail Blazers are drowning in questions.

Will Noah Vonleh join Moe Harkless, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic in the starting lineup? If so, will that fivesome continue to outscore teams by more than five points per 100 possessions? 

Is there enough above-average shooting sprinkled throughout the rotation following Allen Crabbe's exit? Even if the Blazers don't pace the league in accuracy on contested three-point looks? And even if Al-Farouq Aminu doesn't sink 37-plus percent of his treys, as he did after the All-Star break?

How will the frontcourt rotation shake out after Nurkic? Will the Blazers experiment with rookies Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan? Can they find minutes at the 4 for Aminu, Harkless and Evan Turner if Collins, Nurkic, Swanigan, Vonleh, Ed Davis and Meyers Leonard all get spin? 

Do they have enough shot creators behind Lillard and McCollum? Can Turner carry the playmaking burden behind Lillard and McCollum? Does he even have a prominent spot in the rotation when he won't control the ball as much? When that has already resulted in fewer looks at the rim? And when the Blazers couldn't get the offense going with both him and Nurkic on the court (29 percent shooting)?

Take the glass-half-full stance, and the Blazers' outlook in a hellishly deep West doesn't get much better. The Denver Nuggets (signed Paul Millsap) and Minnesota Timberwolves (acquired Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague) have to be penciled in for playoff slots. That puts two of the Grizzlies, Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz on the outskirts. 

Los Angeles and Utah would seem like the obvious removals after losing stars over the offseason. But the Clippers still employ Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan along with a decent supporting cast, while the Jazz have already shown they can hang without their departed players when Rudy Gobert is anchoring the middle.

Convince Carmelo Anthony to waive his no-trade clause for Portland, and the Blazers will have guaranteed themselves the offensive versatility to flip the tables on Los Angeles or Utah. For now, with no substantive additions to brag about, they join the Grizzlies on Collateral Damage Island.

Please direct all gripes, level-headed disagreements and impassioned threats to whyaretherestillconferences@seriouslytho.ugh. 

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.

Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Salary information via Basketball Insiders, Spotrac and RealGM.