Washington Nationals: Has Joe Ross turned the corner?

The proverbial “turned the corner” phrase is among the most used (and some would say overused) terms in baseball. It’s a classic baseball cliche, it usually centers around a young player with a high pedigree who struggles at first before figuring things out and reaching the level we previously thought them capable of. However, as is often the case, this baseball cliche is based in some sort of reality, as there does often seem to be a moment when the light goes on (another solid baseball cliche) and certain young players are able to maintain a more stable approach to solidify themselves among the top tier in the league.

So is this what has happened with Washington Nationals starter Joe Ross in the past few weeks?

Joe Ross has been on the radar for most baseball fans since his spot in the 2014 Wil Myers/Steven Souza/Trea Turner mega trade, as he was one of the pieces that moved, going from San Diego to Washington as part of the swap. Ross was just inside the top 100 prospects at the end of the 2014 season, but he was a familiar name, as his older brother Tyson Ross was an established major league pitcher.

It didn’t take long for Ross to reach the major leagues, as he made his MLB debut in 2015 just after his 22nd birthday. Ross made 16 appearances, 13 of them starts, and posted a 3.64 ERA. The ceiling was high for Ross. 

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Then, in 2016, Ross once again got off a strong start, with a 3.30 and 7-4 record by the end of June, but a poor start in July was the sign of injury, and he missed the 10 weeks, only returning for three abbreviated starts in September.

Heading in 2017 there were some question marks as he hadn’t gone longer than four innings in any of his September 2016 starts. Those questions were not assuaged by the 6.39 ERA that Ross had over his first eight starts, or the fact that his performance landed him in the minor leagues for a stint, his first time to the minors for performance since his debut in 2015.

However, there were some signs that Ross was getting unlucky in addition to pitching not quite his best. Thanks to 43 strikeouts and just 10 walks over those first eight starts, Ross sported a FIP (4.83) and xFIP (3.92) that was far superior to his ERA.

His past two starts have been a lot better as well, going six innings and allowing just two runs on the road against the Mets before an especially-sharp seven-inning, one-run, five-strikeout win over the Reds his last time out. Ross now has his ERA nearly a full run lower (5.40), and his FIP (4.74) and xFIP (4.12) are approaching league average despite the slow start.

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Whether this has been a bit of tough luck evening itself out, or a young pitcher who is figuring out the first rough patch of his career, either way it looks good to see the youngster thriving once again. Joe Ross will be an essential part of the Washington Nationals success this season, and his next start out (against the Chicago Cubs) is the type of start the Nats will need him to succeed in if they are going to be among the true contenders in the National League.