Titans of Mavericks organizers posted a “Potential Swell” warning on the big wave surf contest’s website Monday in anticipation of a swell forecast to produce wave heights not seen at Maverick’s since at least 2010.
Wave heights will reach up to 49 feet by midday Saturday and will hover around 30 feet for most of the day, according to StormSurf, the contest’s official forecasting site.
“It’s definitely one of the bigger forecasts in maybe even a couple of years,” said Zach Wormhoudt of Santa Cruz, the only surfer to have been invited to every iteration of the big wave contest held at Maverick’s near the Pillar Point Harbor.
Yet when it comes to the prospect of holding the contest this weekend, the “devil” may be in the details.
A south wind, also known as a “devil wind,” and rains are likely to play spoiler.
According to the National Weather Service, a westerly swell of 22-25 feet will combine with winds of between 20-30 knots out of the southwest.
“They’ve got the swell going, with those winds as high as they’re going to be,” said Bob Benjamin, a forecaster for the National Weather Service. “But with near gale force winds, I think it’s going to be a bit too breezy.”
Wormhoudt said strong winds like that out of the northwest, the same direction as the swell, would actually be welcomed because they would help push surfers into the three-stories-plus waves. Out of the south or southwest, they can be wicked.
“Any south or southwest wind puts a damper on anything Maverick’s,” Wormhoudt said. “Two to three knots, even just a seabreeze, can be pretty problematic.”
The most attractive aspect of this swell, Wormhoudt said, isn’t necessarily the wave height, but rather the interval between waves. The longer the interval, the bigger, heavier and cleaner the wave generally is. On Saturday, the wave interval is expected to be 20 seconds. In comparison, the 2014 contest won by Grant “Twiggy” Baker was held on 45-foot-faces. Those waves were created from a 9.4-foot swell with an 18- to 19-second interval.
Wormhoudt said organizers of the In Memory of Eddie Aikau big wave contest in Hawaii had also eyed this swell but had chosen to pass on it. If Titans organizers decide to run their contest Saturday, they would have to make up their minds by Friday morning at the latest to give their 30 invitees from around the world time to get to the break.
It’s unlikely, but not unheard of.
“They can see the swell pretty far away, but the local weather is almost a mystery up until that morning” (of the event),” Wormhoudt said. “They eventually have to make that call, but a lot of times you can’t predict the wind for that day until 48 hours before, and even then sometimes it’s just a guess.”
The window for the contest runs through March 31. “Hopefully it runs soon,” Wormhoudt said. “That would be awesome.”