Healthy, Well-Functioning Credit Markets Spurred on by Strong Balance Growth, Low Delinquency Rates
Latest TransUnion report reveals personal loan balances surpass $100 billion milestone
Balances continue to rise and delinquencies remain muted across all credit products, according to TransUnion’s (NYSE: TRU) Q3 2016 Industry Insights Report. The report, powered by PramaSM analytics, points to a healthy, well-functioning consumer credit market, which has seen continued growth across diverse products such as the mortgage market and the personal loan space.
“The consumer credit market is performing well, as more consumers are gaining access to loans and paying them off in a timely fashion. We continue to see strong participation rates from the youngest consumer group, coupled with low delinquency levels—a promising sign for the industry.”
More than 15 million consumers had a personal loan in the third quarter of 2016. The number of consumers with a personal loan grew by 1.5 million between Q3 2015 and Q3 2016. The report also found that personal loan balances surpassed $100 billion for the first time in Q3 2016, with $17 billion of balance growth occurring in the last year.
Despite surpassing $100 billion, total personal loan balances experienced the slowest third quarter growth rate since Q3 2013. In the third quarter of 2016, balances grew 20.9%, down from 24.9% in Q3 2015 and 25.5% in Q3 2014.
“Personal loans crossed two key milestones in the third quarter, with consumer participation in this market at its highest level since the end of the Recession. Investor concerns and the subsequent impact on FinTech lending certainly contributed in part to some of the lower growth rates we saw in the last quarter. However, consumer appetite for personal loans is expected to grow as the economy thrives, and FinTechs will remain an important lending source.”
FinTech lender share of originated personal loans has more than tripled since 2013. FinTech originations reached 26% of all personal loans in Q2 2016, up from 8% in Q2 2013 and 16% in Q2 2014. Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to ensure all accounts are reported and included in the data. In total, more than 3.57 million personal loans were originated in the second quarter, down 0.5% from 3.58 million in Q2 2015.
FinTech Lenders’ Share of the Personal Loan Market
Q2 2010 | Q2 2011 | Q2 2012 | Q2 2013 | Q2 2014 | Q2 2015 | Q2 2016 |
2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 16% | 27% | 26% |
In Q2 2016, near prime originations declined 4.7% and prime originations declined 2.7%, while both subprime and super prime originations grew by 3.2%, compared to Q2 2015. A prior TransUnion analysis found that FinTechs were outpacing traditional lenders in personal loans originated to near prime and prime borrowers. “The decline in near prime and prime originations reflects the challenges faced by some FinTech lenders,” added Laky. “Offsetting this, banks and credit unions are expanding in the super prime risk tier, while traditional finance companies continue to expand in subprime.”
Trends in the Unsecured Personal Loan Market
Unsecured Personal Loan Metric | Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | Q3 2014 | Q3 2013 |
Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) Per Borrower | 3.30% | 3.32% | 3.68% | 3.63% |
Average Debt Per Borrower | $7,745 | $7,102 | $6,501 | $6,035 |
Prior Quarter Originations* | 2.99 million | 2.63 million | 2.40 million | 2.03 million |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
TransUnion Insights: Inside the Mortgage Market
TransUnion’s Industry Insights Report found that the mortgage delinquency rate declined 8.4% from 2.50% in Q3 2015 to 2.29% in Q3 2016, the lowest level since Q3 2009.
Subprime and near prime mortgage originations, viewed one quarter in arrears, experienced the largest year-over-year growth from Q2 2015 to Q2 2016. Subprime originations reached nearly 64,000 in Q2 2016, the highest level since Q4 2009 and a 10.9% growth rate year over year. Near prime originations grew 5.7% to more than 262,000 in Q2 2016, the highest level since the Recession.
Overall, mortgage originations increased to 1.99 million in Q2 2016, a 3.7% rise from 1.92 million in Q2 2015.
“Mortgage originations have experienced steady growth across all risk tiers, and these new milestones in subprime and near prime account originations reflect growing credit access across the risk spectrum. While access has grown, it’s important to note that the subprime share of originations was only 3.2%, and the near prime share was 13.2% of all originations. We do not see a cause for concern.”
Total mortgage balances grew 1.7%, from $8.25 billion in the third quarter of 2015 to $8.39 billion in Q3 2016. “The increase in mortgage balances was primarily driven by continued low interest rate availability supporting origination growth and higher home values leading to higher average new loan amounts,” added Mellman.
Trends in the Mortgage Market
Mortgage Lending Metric | Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | Q3 2014 | Q3 2013 |
Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) per Borrower | 2.29% | 2.50% | 3.51% | 4.46% |
Average Debt Per Borrower | $193,489 | $189,428 | $186,577 | $185,809 |
Prior Quarter Originations* | 1.99 million | 1.92 million | 1.39 million | 2.23 million |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
TransUnion Insights: Inside the Auto Loan Market
Total auto loan balances grew 9% to $1.1 trillion in Q3 2016 from $1.01 trillion in Q3 2015, according to TransUnion’s latest Industry Insights Report. Subprime balances experienced the largest increase, with 11.4% year-over-year growth. Despite this increase, subprime balances accounted for just $172 million of the $1.1 trillion in total balances in Q3 2016.
In the third quarter, 79.3 million consumers had an auto loan, up 6.2% from 74.7 million in Q3 2015. The average balance per consumer was $18,361, the highest level since Q3 2009. One year prior, the average auto loan balance was $17,946.
“Subprime balance growth outpaced overall growth in the auto loan sector in the third quarter, but subprime consumers’ share of balances has remained steady in the last few years. We’re observing increased delinquency rates, but this is a natural function of more non-prime consumers with an auto loan. We hope that steady job growth and wage gains will enable delinquencies to continue at low rates and support continued auto sales growth, though potentially at a more moderate pace than in recent years.”
The report also found that auto loan delinquency, for consumers 60 days or more past due, reached 1.33% in Q3 2016, up from 1.19% in the third quarter of 2015. Auto originations, viewed one quarter in arrears, grew at the slowest annual pace since the Recession. Total originations were 7.27 million in Q2 2016, up slightly from 7.24 million in Q2 2015. Originations to non-prime consumers (VantageScore® 3.0 score of 660 and below) declined for the first time since Q3 2010.
“The second quarter of 2016 marked the first sign of a slowdown in non-prime originations, but the flat growth in total originations was in line with the expected plateauing of new vehicle sales,” added Laky.
Trends in the Auto Market
Auto Lending Metric | Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | Q3 2014 | Q3 2013 |
Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) Per Borrower | 1.33% | 1.19% | 1.20% | 1.12% |
Average Debt Per Borrower | $18,361 | $17,946 | $17,351 | $16,699 |
Prior Quarter Originations* | 7.27 million | 7.24 million | 6.81 million | 6.48 million |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
TransUnion Insights: Inside the Credit Card Market
The latest Industry Insights Report found that total credit card balances continued to rise across all credit risk tiers during Q3 2016. Balances increased to $683 billion for the quarter, up more than 7% compared to Q3 2015.
Non-prime consumers led the annual growth in credit card balances as both subprime (+16.2%) and near prime (+7.0%) risk tiers experienced larger increases compared to super prime (+5.5%) and prime (+5.2%) borrowers.
Credit card originations, viewed one quarter in arrears (to ensure all accounts are reported and included in the data) grew by 2.3 million (+15.3%) from 15.29 million in Q2 2015 to 17.62 million in Q2 2016. Growth was observed across all risk tiers, with both super prime (+15.3%) and non-prime (+16.0%) experiencing large gains.
“The credit card market continues to exhibit healthy year-over-year growth in originations and balances across all risk tiers. There is a higher focus on growing prime and above originations while moderating growth in the subprime segment – a trend that started at the end of 2015. This has led to continued low delinquency rates for the credit card market.”
Despite an increase in non-prime consumers participating in the credit card market, the serious delinquency rate (90 days or more past due) remained relatively low at 1.53% in Q3 2016. This was an increase of nine basis points from a Q3 2015 reading of 1.44%, though it remains below the average third quarter reading of 1.66% (2010-2015). “Low levels of card delinquencies, despite growing share of non-prime consumers, are primarily supported by the strong economic fundamentals,” added Siegfried.
Trends in the Credit Card Market
Credit Card Metric | Q3 2016 | Q3 2015 | Q3 2014 | Q3 2013 |
Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) Per Borrower | 1.53% | 1.44% | 1.35% | 1.48% |
Average Debt Per Borrower | $5,323 | $5,229 | $5,251 | $5,230 |
Originations* | 17.62 million | 15.29 million | 13.66 million | 11.13 million |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Please visit http://www.transunioninsights.com/IIR for more charts and details about TransUnion’s Q3 2016 Industry Insights Report or register for TransUnion's Q3 2016 Industry Insights Webinar.
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