On the strength of two Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz money fights, as well as Brock Lesnar’s controversial comeback at UFC 200, Dana White and the new WME-IMG ownership group are within striking distance of the company’s best-selling pay-per-view year to date.
But first, at least two big dominoes have to fall the right way. Before we get into those hypotheticals, let’s crunch the pay-per-view numbers we already know, as reported by UFC PPV guru Dave Meltzer (via MMA Payout).
The UFC’s #1 pay-per-view year, 2010, totaled approximately 8.8 million buys with 16 PPVs. The blockbusters were courtesy of Brock Lesnar, whose UFC 116 and 121 headliners totaled just under 2 million buys, as well as Georges St-Pierre, whose UFC 111 and 124 showcases surpassed 1.5 million. Rashad Evans vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 114 also came in strong at an even 1 million.
2016 has seen nine UFC pay-per-views thus far with four still to go. UFC 195 through UFC 202 accounted for at least 6 million buys, and early estimates for UFC 203 have the event doing at least 400,000 (with the possibility of a much higher total). For our purposes, we’ll take a conservative approach with these cards, as well as UFC 204: Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson 2, which should do 300,000 at minimum (Bisping’s UFC 199 rematch with Luke Rockhold did 320,000, for comparison).
All together, this lowball estimate comes out to 6.7 million buys.
Which brings us back to our dominoes. The first one is McGregor, who with a quick turnaround at UFC 205 would have the November card at Madison Square Garden easily clear 1.5 million buys. Don’t forget that UFC 202 broke the all-time PPV record with a reported 1.65 million buys, and did not benefit from a stacked card like the one 205 already boasts.
McGregor's return is not a sure thing, especially given the damage the UFC featherweight champion took against Diaz in their Aug. 20 rematch, but he truly is the UFC’s last hope at the type of landmark event expected for their introduction to New York. But given the dearth of top draws available and the news of welterweight champion Tyron Woodley — who has been adamant about getting a big PPV payday — joining the card, I say the deal gets done.
That would take the UFC’s annual buy rate to at least 8.2 million, just 600,000 short of the record with UFC 206 and 207 still on the calendar. The big fights already being discussed for these December events — Daniel Cormier vs. Anthony Johnson 2, Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt and Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum — would be enough to flirt with the record of 8.8 million buys.
But one more big domino falling into place would clear it, without question. That would be either GSP making his long-awaited comeback at UFC 206 in Toronto, or Ronda Rousey returning to the Octagon at UFC 207 in Las Vegas. St-Pierre’s first day of eligibility happens to arrive on Dec. 10, the same day the UFC visits the Air Canada Center. Rousey is more of a long shot for Dec. 30 given her injury woes, but a 2016 return hasn’t been ruled out.
Just one of the two stars returning would be an automatic 1 million buys in the bank, with 1.5 million well within reach. Either way, though, a 206 of 207 comeback for either former champ would represent a new pay-per-view record for the UFC.
For those still keeping score, McGregor plus GSP or Rousey would be at least 9.2 million buys, with the chance to creep up to around 10 million if you round up those conservative estimates. And that’s with three less pay-per-views than 2010.
Of course, none of this happens unless we get “red panty night” at UFC 205. Fingers crossed.
